Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, anchored by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's #2 ranking at 1503 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505) and ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 (1496) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent computer-use launch and "thinking" mode enhancements, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks amid rapid feature shipping like voice and persistent memory. With resolution imminent, challenges include surprise model updates from rivals or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though established release cycles limit late disruptions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAnthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$527,600 Vol.
$527,600 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$527,600 Vol.
$527,600 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,677 Vol.
98%
xAI
$54,085 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$152,000 Vol.
<1%
$122,088 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,625 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, anchored by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's #2 ranking at 1503 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505) and ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 (1496) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent computer-use launch and "thinking" mode enhancements, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks amid rapid feature shipping like voice and persistent memory. With resolution imminent, challenges include surprise model updates from rivals or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though established release cycles limit late disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$527,600Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, anchored by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's #2 ranking at 1503 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505) and ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 (1496) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent computer-use launch and "thinking" mode enhancements, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks amid rapid feature shipping like voice and persistent memory. With resolution imminent, challenges include surprise model updates from rivals or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though established release cycles limit late disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$527,600Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.9% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, anchored by Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking's #2 ranking at 1503 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—just behind Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (1505) and ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 (1496) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high (1495). This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent computer-use launch and "thinking" mode enhancements, excelling in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks amid rapid feature shipping like voice and persistent memory. With resolution imminent, challenges include surprise model updates from rivals or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though established release cycles limit late disruptions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes