Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by the persistent anthropogenic warming trend elevating global surface air temperatures despite a fading weak La Niña. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record—0.51–1.12°C above recent baselines—while December 2025–February 2026 DJF averaged fifth-highest, outperforming expectations under cooling ENSO influences. Forecasts from Environment Canada and others project 2026 comparable to or warmer than third-place 2025, potentially boosted by a transition to ENSO-neutral (90% likely March–May) or emerging El Niño later in the year. Upcoming NOAA monthly reports and IRI/CPC ENSO plumes through boreal summer will refine year-end projections amid inherent model uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 46%
1 28%
4 15%
3 9.6%
$2,402,677 Vol.
$2,402,677 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
28%
2
46%
3
10%
4
15%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
2%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
3%
2 46%
1 28%
4 15%
3 9.6%
$2,402,677 Vol.
$2,402,677 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$333,149 Vol.
28%
2
$244,448 Vol.
46%
3
$368,722 Vol.
10%
4
$360,981 Vol.
15%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$663,028 Vol.
2%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$432,349 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by the persistent anthropogenic warming trend elevating global surface air temperatures despite a fading weak La Niña. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record—0.51–1.12°C above recent baselines—while December 2025–February 2026 DJF averaged fifth-highest, outperforming expectations under cooling ENSO influences. Forecasts from Environment Canada and others project 2026 comparable to or warmer than third-place 2025, potentially boosted by a transition to ENSO-neutral (90% likely March–May) or emerging El Niño later in the year. Upcoming NOAA monthly reports and IRI/CPC ENSO plumes through boreal summer will refine year-end projections amid inherent model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,402,677Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by the persistent anthropogenic warming trend elevating global surface air temperatures despite a fading weak La Niña. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record—0.51–1.12°C above recent baselines—while December 2025–February 2026 DJF averaged fifth-highest, outperforming expectations under cooling ENSO influences. Forecasts from Environment Canada and others project 2026 comparable to or warmer than third-place 2025, potentially boosted by a transition to ENSO-neutral (90% likely March–May) or emerging El Niño later in the year. Upcoming NOAA monthly reports and IRI/CPC ENSO plumes through boreal summer will refine year-end projections amid inherent model uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,402,677Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 73% chance that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by the persistent anthropogenic warming trend elevating global surface air temperatures despite a fading weak La Niña. NOAA and Copernicus data confirm January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record—0.51–1.12°C above recent baselines—while December 2025–February 2026 DJF averaged fifth-highest, outperforming expectations under cooling ENSO influences. Forecasts from Environment Canada and others project 2026 comparable to or warmer than third-place 2025, potentially boosted by a transition to ENSO-neutral (90% likely March–May) or emerging El Niño later in the year. Upcoming NOAA monthly reports and IRI/CPC ENSO plumes through boreal summer will refine year-end projections amid inherent model uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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