Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 45.5% implied probability, slightly ahead of first at 27.5%, driven by Q1 observational data from NOAA and Copernicus showing January and February as the fifth-warmest on record for those months despite lingering La Niña effects. Forecasts from Berkeley Earth, Environment Canada, and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four warmest years—comparable to 2023-2025—with global mean surface temperature anomalies likely 1.35-1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, fueled by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amid an 11-year streak of record heat through 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through mid-year (55-60% per NOAA), potentially limiting extremes versus prior El Niño peaks, though El Niño odds rise later; watch monthly bulletins for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 46%
1 28%
4 16%
3 9.2%
$2,401,393 Vol.
$2,401,393 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
28%
2
46%
3
9%
4
16%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
3%
2 46%
1 28%
4 16%
3 9.2%
$2,401,393 Vol.
$2,401,393 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$333,019 Vol.
28%
2
$244,444 Vol.
46%
3
$368,701 Vol.
9%
4
$359,971 Vol.
16%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$662,972 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$432,288 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 45.5% implied probability, slightly ahead of first at 27.5%, driven by Q1 observational data from NOAA and Copernicus showing January and February as the fifth-warmest on record for those months despite lingering La Niña effects. Forecasts from Berkeley Earth, Environment Canada, and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four warmest years—comparable to 2023-2025—with global mean surface temperature anomalies likely 1.35-1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, fueled by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amid an 11-year streak of record heat through 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through mid-year (55-60% per NOAA), potentially limiting extremes versus prior El Niño peaks, though El Niño odds rise later; watch monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,401,393Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 45.5% implied probability, slightly ahead of first at 27.5%, driven by Q1 observational data from NOAA and Copernicus showing January and February as the fifth-warmest on record for those months despite lingering La Niña effects. Forecasts from Berkeley Earth, Environment Canada, and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four warmest years—comparable to 2023-2025—with global mean surface temperature anomalies likely 1.35-1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, fueled by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amid an 11-year streak of record heat through 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through mid-year (55-60% per NOAA), potentially limiting extremes versus prior El Niño peaks, though El Niño odds rise later; watch monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,401,393Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 45.5% implied probability, slightly ahead of first at 27.5%, driven by Q1 observational data from NOAA and Copernicus showing January and February as the fifth-warmest on record for those months despite lingering La Niña effects. Forecasts from Berkeley Earth, Environment Canada, and the UK Met Office project 2026 among the top four warmest years—comparable to 2023-2025—with global mean surface temperature anomalies likely 1.35-1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, fueled by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amid an 11-year streak of record heat through 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through mid-year (55-60% per NOAA), potentially limiting extremes versus prior El Niño peaks, though El Niño odds rise later; watch monthly bulletins for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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