Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.9% implied probability for U.S. median home value landing in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, driven by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up 0.9% year over year amid stabilizing transaction volumes. NAR data corroborates modest momentum, with February existing-home sales rising 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate and median price edging 0.3% higher to $398,000, reflecting divergent methodologies but broad price resilience. Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and inventory at 3.8 months' supply cap upside, while improving affordability supports the narrow lead. March sales data, due mid-April, represents the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en EE. UU. el 1 de abril?
¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en EE. UU. el 1 de abril?
425 - 427,5k 13%
430 - 432,5k 4.5%
422.5 - 425k 2.6%
432,5 - 435 mil 1.9%
$21,914 Vol.
$21,914 Vol.
1 abr 2026
<420k
2%
420 - 422,5k
1%
422.5 - 425k
3%
425 - 427,5k
13%
427.5 - 430k
49%
430 - 432,5k
5%
432,5 - 435 mil
2%
>435k
1%
425 - 427,5k 13%
430 - 432,5k 4.5%
422.5 - 425k 2.6%
432,5 - 435 mil 1.9%
$21,914 Vol.
$21,914 Vol.
1 abr 2026
<420k
$255 Vol.
2%
420 - 422,5k
$241 Vol.
1%
422.5 - 425k
$6,922 Vol.
3%
425 - 427,5k
$9,164 Vol.
13%
427.5 - 430k
$1,229 Vol.
49%
430 - 432,5k
$1,240 Vol.
5%
432,5 - 435 mil
$2,504 Vol.
2%
>435k
$360 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.9% implied probability for U.S. median home value landing in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, driven by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up 0.9% year over year amid stabilizing transaction volumes. NAR data corroborates modest momentum, with February existing-home sales rising 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate and median price edging 0.3% higher to $398,000, reflecting divergent methodologies but broad price resilience. Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and inventory at 3.8 months' supply cap upside, while improving affordability supports the narrow lead. March sales data, due mid-April, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Mercado abierto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volumen
$21,914Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.9% implied probability for U.S. median home value landing in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, driven by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up 0.9% year over year amid stabilizing transaction volumes. NAR data corroborates modest momentum, with February existing-home sales rising 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate and median price edging 0.3% higher to $398,000, reflecting divergent methodologies but broad price resilience. Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and inventory at 3.8 months' supply cap upside, while improving affordability supports the narrow lead. March sales data, due mid-April, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Volumen
$21,914Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.9% implied probability for U.S. median home value landing in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, driven by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up 0.9% year over year amid stabilizing transaction volumes. NAR data corroborates modest momentum, with February existing-home sales rising 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate and median price edging 0.3% higher to $398,000, reflecting divergent methodologies but broad price resilience. Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and inventory at 3.8 months' supply cap upside, while improving affordability supports the narrow lead. March sales data, due mid-April, represents the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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