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Tech·Llm

¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?

Market icon
Tech·Llm

¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?

Sí

21% probabilidad
Polymarket

$44,718 Vol.

Sí

21% probabilidad
Polymarket

$44,718 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite explosive growth, including a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation and $2 billion monthly revenue from 900 million weekly ChatGPT users. Recent advances like o3's 85% ARC-AGI benchmark score and GPT-5.4's agentic workflow dominance showcase reasoning leaps, yet fall short of OpenAI's stringent Level 4 AGI threshold—systems outperforming humans across economically valuable work. Sam Altman's February update shifted timelines to superintelligence by 2028, tempering hype amid fuzzy definitions and competitive pressure from Anthropic's 2027 forecasts; key catalysts include Q2 enterprise earnings and next frontier model demos.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$44,718
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79% implied probability for OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI) before 2027, driven by the absence of any official claim despite explosive growth, including a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at $852 billion valuation and $2 billion monthly revenue from 900 million weekly ChatGPT users. Recent advances like o3's 85% ARC-AGI benchmark score and GPT-5.4's agentic workflow dominance showcase reasoning leaps, yet fall short of OpenAI's stringent Level 4 AGI threshold—systems outperforming humans across economically valuable work. Sam Altman's February update shifted timelines to superintelligence by 2028, tempering hype amid fuzzy definitions and competitive pressure from Anthropic's 2027 forecasts; key catalysts include Q2 enterprise earnings and next frontier model demos.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$44,718
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 21¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" ha generado $44.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Oct 28, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" es "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" con 21%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿OpenAI anuncia que ha logrado AGI antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.