Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 68.5% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of triggering events in the first five months, including President Trump remaining securely in office with routine White House remarks on May 6 amid stable Republican Senate control (53-47). Xi Jinping's leadership persists without upheaval, while Taiwan Strait tensions stay rhetorical amid partisan gridlock on defense budgets and U.S. congressional condemnations of Chinese threats. Iran's regime endures economic strains and recent UAE attacks but shows no collapse signs despite U.S. peace proposals; Bitcoin hovers near $80,000; no escalatory invasions, natural disasters (no 9.0+ quakes or VEI≥6 eruptions), or other catalysts. Lingering risks include November midterms potentially delivering a Republican Senate supermajority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNunca pasa nada: 2026
Nunca pasa nada: 2026
Sí
$550,806 Vol.
$550,806 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$550,806 Vol.
$550,806 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 68.5% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of triggering events in the first five months, including President Trump remaining securely in office with routine White House remarks on May 6 amid stable Republican Senate control (53-47). Xi Jinping's leadership persists without upheaval, while Taiwan Strait tensions stay rhetorical amid partisan gridlock on defense budgets and U.S. congressional condemnations of Chinese threats. Iran's regime endures economic strains and recent UAE attacks but shows no collapse signs despite U.S. peace proposals; Bitcoin hovers near $80,000; no escalatory invasions, natural disasters (no 9.0+ quakes or VEI≥6 eruptions), or other catalysts. Lingering risks include November midterms potentially delivering a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$550,806Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 68.5% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of triggering events in the first five months, including President Trump remaining securely in office with routine White House remarks on May 6 amid stable Republican Senate control (53-47). Xi Jinping's leadership persists without upheaval, while Taiwan Strait tensions stay rhetorical amid partisan gridlock on defense budgets and U.S. congressional condemnations of Chinese threats. Iran's regime endures economic strains and recent UAE attacks but shows no collapse signs despite U.S. peace proposals; Bitcoin hovers near $80,000; no escalatory invasions, natural disasters (no 9.0+ quakes or VEI≥6 eruptions), or other catalysts. Lingering risks include November midterms potentially delivering a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$550,806Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 68.5% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of triggering events in the first five months, including President Trump remaining securely in office with routine White House remarks on May 6 amid stable Republican Senate control (53-47). Xi Jinping's leadership persists without upheaval, while Taiwan Strait tensions stay rhetorical amid partisan gridlock on defense budgets and U.S. congressional condemnations of Chinese threats. Iran's regime endures economic strains and recent UAE attacks but shows no collapse signs despite U.S. peace proposals; Bitcoin hovers near $80,000; no escalatory invasions, natural disasters (no 9.0+ quakes or VEI≥6 eruptions), or other catalysts. Lingering risks include November midterms potentially delivering a Republican Senate supermajority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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