¿Posibilidades de una gran reducción de tasas bajo cada presidente de la Fed?
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 24%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 23%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5% 16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5% 12%
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
$1,096 Vol.
24%
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
$1,096 Vol.
24%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$454 Vol.
23%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$454 Vol.
23%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$909 Vol.
16%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$909 Vol.
16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
$55 Vol.
12%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
$55 Vol.
12%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$135 Vol.
8%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$135 Vol.
8%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
$135 Vol.
8%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
$135 Vol.
8%
Otro
$75 Vol.
8%
Otro
$75 Vol.
8%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$3,949 Vol.
4%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$3,949 Vol.
4%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
$1,122 Vol.
3%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
$1,122 Vol.
3%
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Creado en: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...¿Posibilidades de una gran reducción de tasas bajo cada presidente de la Fed?
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 24%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 23%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5% 16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5% 12%
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
24%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
23%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
12%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
8%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
8%
Otro
8%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
4%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
3%
Acerca de
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ten cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Ten cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Ten cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Ten cuidado con los enlaces externos.