Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as President-elect Trump's next Fed Chair pick, with an implied 78.5% probability that the federal funds rate stays above 2.5% under his leadership, dwarfing alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. This positioning stems from mid-November reports of Warsh's meetings with Trump transition officials, boosting his odds from under 50% post-election to near 80% amid his hawkish reputation favoring tighter policy amid sticky inflation. The Fed's December 18 rate cut to 4.25-4.50% and dot plot projecting rates above 2.5% through 2026 reinforce expectations of gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, aligning with Warsh's past critiques of Powell's dovishness. Upcoming confirmation battles and economic data could shift this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTipo de interés previsto por la Fed bajo cada presidente de la Fed
Tipo de interés previsto por la Fed bajo cada presidente de la Fed
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 78%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 12%
Otro 4.4%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5% 2.1%
$14,234 Vol.
$14,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
78%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
12%
Otro
4%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
2%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
1%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
1%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
<1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
<1%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
<1%
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 78%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 12%
Otro 4.4%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5% 2.1%
$14,234 Vol.
$14,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
$6,589 Vol.
78%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$0 Vol.
12%
Otro
$0 Vol.
4%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$0 Vol.
2%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$0 Vol.
1%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
$0 Vol.
1%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$0 Vol.
<1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
$0 Vol.
<1%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
$7,645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as President-elect Trump's next Fed Chair pick, with an implied 78.5% probability that the federal funds rate stays above 2.5% under his leadership, dwarfing alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. This positioning stems from mid-November reports of Warsh's meetings with Trump transition officials, boosting his odds from under 50% post-election to near 80% amid his hawkish reputation favoring tighter policy amid sticky inflation. The Fed's December 18 rate cut to 4.25-4.50% and dot plot projecting rates above 2.5% through 2026 reinforce expectations of gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, aligning with Warsh's past critiques of Powell's dovishness. Upcoming confirmation battles and economic data could shift this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Mercado abierto: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Volumen
$14,234Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as President-elect Trump's next Fed Chair pick, with an implied 78.5% probability that the federal funds rate stays above 2.5% under his leadership, dwarfing alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. This positioning stems from mid-November reports of Warsh's meetings with Trump transition officials, boosting his odds from under 50% post-election to near 80% amid his hawkish reputation favoring tighter policy amid sticky inflation. The Fed's December 18 rate cut to 4.25-4.50% and dot plot projecting rates above 2.5% through 2026 reinforce expectations of gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, aligning with Warsh's past critiques of Powell's dovishness. Upcoming confirmation battles and economic data could shift this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Volumen
$14,234Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as President-elect Trump's next Fed Chair pick, with an implied 78.5% probability that the federal funds rate stays above 2.5% under his leadership, dwarfing alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. This positioning stems from mid-November reports of Warsh's meetings with Trump transition officials, boosting his odds from under 50% post-election to near 80% amid his hawkish reputation favoring tighter policy amid sticky inflation. The Fed's December 18 rate cut to 4.25-4.50% and dot plot projecting rates above 2.5% through 2026 reinforce expectations of gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, aligning with Warsh's past critiques of Powell's dovishness. Upcoming confirmation battles and economic data could shift this skin-in-the-game crowd wisdom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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