SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026 following its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, targeting a June listing at over $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially raising $75 billion via Starlink cash flows and reusable launch dominance. The February merger with xAI, valued at $230 billion pre-deal, bolsters this positioning by integrating AI capabilities like orbital compute infrastructure, elevating SpaceX ahead of pure-play AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which linger at 4.3% without comparable filings or timelines. Lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show no recent IPO momentum. Traders eye the upcoming public prospectus and roadshow for resolution catalysts, though execution risks like regulatory scrutiny persist.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,224 Vol.
$1,641,224 Vol.
31 dic 2026
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Waymo
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.3%
OpenAI 4.3%
Discord <1%
$1,641,224 Vol.
$1,641,224 Vol.
31 dic 2026
SpaceX
$183,273 Vol.
90%
Anthropic
$344,020 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$297,740 Vol.
4%
Discord
$68,630 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$375,390 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$39,133 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$68,680 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$85,053 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$54,000 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$45,674 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$53,454 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$26,178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026 following its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, targeting a June listing at over $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially raising $75 billion via Starlink cash flows and reusable launch dominance. The February merger with xAI, valued at $230 billion pre-deal, bolsters this positioning by integrating AI capabilities like orbital compute infrastructure, elevating SpaceX ahead of pure-play AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which linger at 4.3% without comparable filings or timelines. Lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show no recent IPO momentum. Traders eye the upcoming public prospectus and roadshow for resolution catalysts, though execution risks like regulatory scrutiny persist.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,641,224Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026 following its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, targeting a June listing at over $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially raising $75 billion via Starlink cash flows and reusable launch dominance. The February merger with xAI, valued at $230 billion pre-deal, bolsters this positioning by integrating AI capabilities like orbital compute infrastructure, elevating SpaceX ahead of pure-play AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which linger at 4.3% without comparable filings or timelines. Lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show no recent IPO momentum. Traders eye the upcoming public prospectus and roadshow for resolution catalysts, though execution risks like regulatory scrutiny persist.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,641,224Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability as the largest IPO by market cap in 2026 following its confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, targeting a June listing at over $1.75 trillion valuation—potentially raising $75 billion via Starlink cash flows and reusable launch dominance. The February merger with xAI, valued at $230 billion pre-deal, bolsters this positioning by integrating AI capabilities like orbital compute infrastructure, elevating SpaceX ahead of pure-play AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which linger at 4.3% without comparable filings or timelines. Lower-tier contenders like Stripe and Databricks show no recent IPO momentum. Traders eye the upcoming public prospectus and roadshow for resolution catalysts, though execution risks like regulatory scrutiny persist.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes