Tesla traders overwhelmingly favor 350,000–375,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 64.5% implied probability, anchored by the company's March 26 release of analyst consensus at 365,645 units—up 8.6% year-over-year from Q1 2025's 336,681 but down 12.6% sequentially from Q4 2025 amid typical seasonality and post-U.S. EV tax credit demand normalization. Model 3/Y projections of 351,179 reflect steady volume from Giga Berlin production ramps and Cybertruck scaling, while energy storage deployments hit 14.4 GWh. The 30% odds on sub-350,000 capture bearish views like Deepwater Asset Management's 345,000 estimate, highlighting potential softness without incentives. Official numbers, due around April 2, will test this consensus as focus shifts toward robotaxi unveilings and FSD progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado350k–375k 65%
<350k 30%
375k–400k 6.2%
400k–425k <1%
$754,992 Vol.
$754,992 Vol.
<350k
30%
350k–375k
65%
375k–400k
6%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
350k–375k 65%
<350k 30%
375k–400k 6.2%
400k–425k <1%
$754,992 Vol.
$754,992 Vol.
<350k
30%
350k–375k
65%
375k–400k
6%
400k–425k
<1%
425k–450k
<1%
450k–475k
<1%
475k–500k
<1%
500k+
<1%
If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tesla traders overwhelmingly favor 350,000–375,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 64.5% implied probability, anchored by the company's March 26 release of analyst consensus at 365,645 units—up 8.6% year-over-year from Q1 2025's 336,681 but down 12.6% sequentially from Q4 2025 amid typical seasonality and post-U.S. EV tax credit demand normalization. Model 3/Y projections of 351,179 reflect steady volume from Giga Berlin production ramps and Cybertruck scaling, while energy storage deployments hit 14.4 GWh. The 30% odds on sub-350,000 capture bearish views like Deepwater Asset Management's 345,000 estimate, highlighting potential softness without incentives. Official numbers, due around April 2, will test this consensus as focus shifts toward robotaxi unveilings and FSD progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes