Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 140-179 SpaceX launches for 2026, with 160-179 leading at 39.5% implied probability and 140-159 close behind at 34.4%, reflecting Q1's robust Falcon 9 cadence of 41 successful missions amid surging Starlink deployments and rideshares like Transporter-16. March's near-daily launches from Florida and California pads underscore high reusability rates nearing 100% for Block 5 boosters, sustaining momentum from 2025's 165 flights. Uncertainty stems from Starship's slow ramp—Flight 12 targeted late April pending FAA approvals—versus Falcon pad constraints at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, plus nine new National Security Space Launch contracts starting late year. Model consensus eyes 145-170 totals if infrastructure scales, with next manifest updates key.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX en 2026?
140-159 39.9%
160-179 37%
180-199 17.5%
200 o más 16%
$246,698 Vol.
$246,698 Vol.
<100
2%
100-119
1%
120-139
9%
140-159
33%
160-179
37%
180-199
14%
200 o más
16%
140-159 39.9%
160-179 37%
180-199 17.5%
200 o más 16%
$246,698 Vol.
$246,698 Vol.
<100
2%
100-119
1%
120-139
9%
140-159
33%
160-179
37%
180-199
14%
200 o más
16%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Mercado abierto: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 140-179 SpaceX launches for 2026, with 160-179 leading at 39.5% implied probability and 140-159 close behind at 34.4%, reflecting Q1's robust Falcon 9 cadence of 41 successful missions amid surging Starlink deployments and rideshares like Transporter-16. March's near-daily launches from Florida and California pads underscore high reusability rates nearing 100% for Block 5 boosters, sustaining momentum from 2025's 165 flights. Uncertainty stems from Starship's slow ramp—Flight 12 targeted late April pending FAA approvals—versus Falcon pad constraints at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, plus nine new National Security Space Launch contracts starting late year. Model consensus eyes 145-170 totals if infrastructure scales, with next manifest updates key.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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