Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 have propelled gold futures (GC) toward record highs, with spot prices hovering near $2,330/oz amid a weakening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation pressures. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability of GC closing above $2,400 by June 30, driven by central bank buying—China added 2.1 million oz in Q1—and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Key catalysts ahead include June 7 NFP (forecast 185K jobs), June 12 CPI (expected 3.4% YoY), and FOMC meeting, where dot-plot shifts could cap upside if cuts are delayed. Historical EOM volatility averages 2.5%, underscoring resolution risk near $2,400.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
$19,990 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
3%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
11%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
16%
$5,400
25%
$5,200
42%
$5,000
43%
$4,800
47%
$4,600
51%
$19,990 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
3%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
11%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
16%
$5,400
25%
$5,200
42%
$5,000
43%
$4,800
47%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 have propelled gold futures (GC) toward record highs, with spot prices hovering near $2,330/oz amid a weakening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation pressures. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 65% implied probability of GC closing above $2,400 by June 30, driven by central bank buying—China added 2.1 million oz in Q1—and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Key catalysts ahead include June 7 NFP (forecast 185K jobs), June 12 CPI (expected 3.4% YoY), and FOMC meeting, where dot-plot shifts could cap upside if cuts are delayed. Historical EOM volatility averages 2.5%, underscoring resolution risk near $2,400.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes