Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Gold (GC) closing above the end-of-June threshold, with yes-side odds reflecting around 60% implied probability amid a multi-month rally pushing spot prices past $2,650/oz. The primary driver is the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, with markets pricing in 75bps of cuts through mid-2025 per CME FedWatch, bolstering gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe haven versus real yields near zero. Supporting dynamics include robust central bank buying (over 1,000 tonnes YTD) and USD weakness, though upside risks from escalating geopolitics in Ukraine and the Middle East loom. Key catalysts ahead: November CPI (Nov 13) and December FOMC (Dec 17-18), where hotter inflation could cap gains near $2,800 resistance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
¿Oro (GC) por encima de ___ a finales de junio?
$37,982 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
26%
$5,400
28%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
45%
$4,600
51%
$37,982 Vol.
$8,000
2%
$7,000
12%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
$6,000
10%
$5,800
19%
$5,600
26%
$5,400
28%
$5,200
40%
$5,000
38%
$4,800
45%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Gold (GC) closing above the end-of-June threshold, with yes-side odds reflecting around 60% implied probability amid a multi-month rally pushing spot prices past $2,650/oz. The primary driver is the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot, with markets pricing in 75bps of cuts through mid-2025 per CME FedWatch, bolstering gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe haven versus real yields near zero. Supporting dynamics include robust central bank buying (over 1,000 tonnes YTD) and USD weakness, though upside risks from escalating geopolitics in Ukraine and the Middle East loom. Key catalysts ahead: November CPI (Nov 13) and December FOMC (Dec 17-18), where hotter inflation could cap gains near $2,800 resistance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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