Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, balancing recent dovish easing against persistent core inflation risks and economic resilience. The BoC's October cut to 3.75%—its fourth this year amid headline CPI dipping to 1.6%—fuels no-hike sentiment, but sticky core CPI near 2.5%, unemployment stabilizing at 6.6%, and wage growth exceeding 4% signal potential overheating. Heightened oil prices from Middle East tensions and a robust housing rebound add hawkish pressure. Odds could tip decisively with the December 11 policy meeting, November 26 CPI data, or Q4 GDP releases, where reacceleration above 2% inflation would boost yes bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volumen
$337Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$337Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, balancing recent dovish easing against persistent core inflation risks and economic resilience. The BoC's October cut to 3.75%—its fourth this year amid headline CPI dipping to 1.6%—fuels no-hike sentiment, but sticky core CPI near 2.5%, unemployment stabilizing at 6.6%, and wage growth exceeding 4% signal potential overheating. Heightened oil prices from Middle East tensions and a robust housing rebound add hawkish pressure. Odds could tip decisively with the December 11 policy meeting, November 26 CPI data, or Q4 GDP releases, where reacceleration above 2% inflation would boost yes bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes