Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by sticky core inflation metrics hovering above the 2% target despite recent policy easing. The BoC's current 3.75% overnight target rate, held steady on December 11 amid resilient GDP growth and a labor market adding 11,000 jobs in November, underpins expectations of further 25bps cuts into mid-2025 before potential reversal. Robust housing demand from population growth and rising wage pressures signal reacceleration risks, with overnight index swaps pricing a trough near 2.5% next year. Key catalysts include January 29 BoC decision, Q4 CPI releases, and February Monetary Policy Report, though global trade tensions add uncertainty to this forward-looking sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volumen
$388Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$388Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by sticky core inflation metrics hovering above the 2% target despite recent policy easing. The BoC's current 3.75% overnight target rate, held steady on December 11 amid resilient GDP growth and a labor market adding 11,000 jobs in November, underpins expectations of further 25bps cuts into mid-2025 before potential reversal. Robust housing demand from population growth and rising wage pressures signal reacceleration risks, with overnight index swaps pricing a trough near 2.5% next year. Key catalysts include January 29 BoC decision, Q4 CPI releases, and February Monetary Policy Report, though global trade tensions add uncertainty to this forward-looking sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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