Google’s October 1 launch of its Project Suncatcher test satellite carrying four Tensor Processing Units aboard a SpaceX rocket has reinforced trader focus on near-term feasibility for orbital AI compute. The prototype validates basic TPU operation in radiation and vacuum conditions but falls well short of the 100-accelerator threshold required for market resolution. Multiple firms, including Starcloud’s earlier H100 test and SpaceX’s planned million-satellite constellation, are advancing parallel efforts, yet cooling, inter-satellite laser links, launch economics, and radiation hardening remain core technical barriers. Google plans two additional satellites in 2027 to test networking, while SpaceX and Blue Origin filings signal larger ambitions; these milestones will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probabilities for 2026 or 2027 resolution.