President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized avoiding new foreign wars in his incoming administration, echoing campaign pledges amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions driven by Tehran's nuclear advancements and proxy attacks via Houthis and militias. No major escalations occurred in the past 30 days, with the most recent significant event being Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, met by restrained retaliation, allowing de-escalation signals from all sides. Trump's team, including hawkish picks like Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, signals continued maximum pressure sanctions and diplomacy over military invasion. A formal congressional war declaration—last invoked in World War II—faces steep barriers without direct provocation like attacks on U.S. assets. Traders watch inauguration on January 20, 2025, and early executive actions for shifts, but current consensus reflects low escalation risk absent a crisis.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Trump dem Iran bis zum... den Krieg erklären?
Wird Trump dem Iran bis zum... den Krieg erklären?
$535,457 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
31. März
2%
30. April
3%
$535,457 Vol.
31. März
$207,141 Vol.
2%
30. April
$1,295 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized avoiding new foreign wars in his incoming administration, echoing campaign pledges amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions driven by Tehran's nuclear advancements and proxy attacks via Houthis and militias. No major escalations occurred in the past 30 days, with the most recent significant event being Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, met by restrained retaliation, allowing de-escalation signals from all sides. Trump's team, including hawkish picks like Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, signals continued maximum pressure sanctions and diplomacy over military invasion. A formal congressional war declaration—last invoked in World War II—faces steep barriers without direct provocation like attacks on U.S. assets. Traders watch inauguration on January 20, 2025, and early executive actions for shifts, but current consensus reflects low escalation risk absent a crisis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volumen
$535,457Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized avoiding new foreign wars in his incoming administration, echoing campaign pledges amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions driven by Tehran's nuclear advancements and proxy attacks via Houthis and militias. No major escalations occurred in the past 30 days, with the most recent significant event being Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, met by restrained retaliation, allowing de-escalation signals from all sides. Trump's team, including hawkish picks like Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, signals continued maximum pressure sanctions and diplomacy over military invasion. A formal congressional war declaration—last invoked in World War II—faces steep barriers without direct provocation like attacks on U.S. assets. Traders watch inauguration on January 20, 2025, and early executive actions for shifts, but current consensus reflects low escalation risk absent a crisis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$535,457Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized avoiding new foreign wars in his incoming administration, echoing campaign pledges amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions driven by Tehran's nuclear advancements and proxy attacks via Houthis and militias. No major escalations occurred in the past 30 days, with the most recent significant event being Israel's limited October airstrikes on Iranian military sites, met by restrained retaliation, allowing de-escalation signals from all sides. Trump's team, including hawkish picks like Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, signals continued maximum pressure sanctions and diplomacy over military invasion. A formal congressional war declaration—last invoked in World War II—faces steep barriers without direct provocation like attacks on U.S. assets. Traders watch inauguration on January 20, 2025, and early executive actions for shifts, but current consensus reflects low escalation risk absent a crisis.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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