Trader consensus heavily favors no US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, White House statements, or US Cyber Command signals indicating imminent operations amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that began with joint strikes on February 28. Initial cyberattacks accompanied those kinetic actions targeted Iranian apps and services, but no verified new US offensive cyber actions have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent focus on Iranian retaliatory hacks like the March 11 Stryker disruption and threats to US infrastructure. As the deadline approaches with just days remaining and diplomatic de-escalation signals, barriers to rapid execution remain high; a shift would require major provocation such as escalated Iranian strikes or urgent intelligence developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWerden die USA bis zum 31. März einen Cyberangriff auf den Iran durchführen?
Werden die USA bis zum 31. März einen Cyberangriff auf den Iran durchführen?
Ja
$341,256 Vol.
$341,256 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$341,256 Vol.
$341,256 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, White House statements, or US Cyber Command signals indicating imminent operations amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that began with joint strikes on February 28. Initial cyberattacks accompanied those kinetic actions targeted Iranian apps and services, but no verified new US offensive cyber actions have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent focus on Iranian retaliatory hacks like the March 11 Stryker disruption and threats to US infrastructure. As the deadline approaches with just days remaining and diplomatic de-escalation signals, barriers to rapid execution remain high; a shift would require major provocation such as escalated Iranian strikes or urgent intelligence developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volumen
$341,256Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, White House statements, or US Cyber Command signals indicating imminent operations amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that began with joint strikes on February 28. Initial cyberattacks accompanied those kinetic actions targeted Iranian apps and services, but no verified new US offensive cyber actions have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent focus on Iranian retaliatory hacks like the March 11 Stryker disruption and threats to US infrastructure. As the deadline approaches with just days remaining and diplomatic de-escalation signals, barriers to rapid execution remain high; a shift would require major provocation such as escalated Iranian strikes or urgent intelligence developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$341,256Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, White House statements, or US Cyber Command signals indicating imminent operations amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that began with joint strikes on February 28. Initial cyberattacks accompanied those kinetic actions targeted Iranian apps and services, but no verified new US offensive cyber actions have surfaced in the past 30 days, with recent focus on Iranian retaliatory hacks like the March 11 Stryker disruption and threats to US infrastructure. As the deadline approaches with just days remaining and diplomatic de-escalation signals, barriers to rapid execution remain high; a shift would require major provocation such as escalated Iranian strikes or urgent intelligence developments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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