Ukrainian forces have reclaimed central and northern parts of Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past week, capturing Russian Storm-Z troops amid geolocated footage of clashes, as reported in late March assessments. This follows Russian assaults near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk on March 27-28 that yielded no confirmed advances per ISW evaluations, stalling earlier January gains where Moscow seized the village center. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of full Russian capture by the April 30 ISW map resolution, driven by Ukraine's recent counteroffensives and fluid frontline dynamics northwest of Orikhiv. Ongoing mechanized attacks persist, but Ukrainian fortifications and momentum pose significant barriers to consolidation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$712,082 Vol.
31. März
1%
30. April
6%
$712,082 Vol.
31. März
1%
30. April
6%
Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 5, 2026, 1:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have reclaimed central and northern parts of Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past week, capturing Russian Storm-Z troops amid geolocated footage of clashes, as reported in late March assessments. This follows Russian assaults near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk on March 27-28 that yielded no confirmed advances per ISW evaluations, stalling earlier January gains where Moscow seized the village center. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of full Russian capture by the April 30 ISW map resolution, driven by Ukraine's recent counteroffensives and fluid frontline dynamics northwest of Orikhiv. Ongoing mechanized attacks persist, but Ukrainian fortifications and momentum pose significant barriers to consolidation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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