The United States maintains a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium in place since 1992, with no explosive tests conducted amid ongoing stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site under the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects persistent low implied probabilities due to technical assessments from NNSA and U.S. Strategic Command indicating no military need for resumption, despite Trump administration considerations of underground tests in response to reported Chinese and Russian activities. Recent developments include a April 29 CTBTO head's warning against U.S. and Russian testing, and NNSA's non-explosive detection experiment last week; the January 14 milestone marked the longest global no-test stretch since 1945. The FY2026 NDAA authorizes tests only if a foreign state detonates first, with no such trigger yet.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$658,461 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
3%
30. September 2026
6%
31. Dezember 2026
10%
$658,461 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$33,298 Vol.
3%
30. September 2026
$5,552 Vol.
6%
31. Dezember 2026
$9,392 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States maintains a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium in place since 1992, with no explosive tests conducted amid ongoing stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site under the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects persistent low implied probabilities due to technical assessments from NNSA and U.S. Strategic Command indicating no military need for resumption, despite Trump administration considerations of underground tests in response to reported Chinese and Russian activities. Recent developments include a April 29 CTBTO head's warning against U.S. and Russian testing, and NNSA's non-explosive detection experiment last week; the January 14 milestone marked the longest global no-test stretch since 1945. The FY2026 NDAA authorizes tests only if a foreign state detonates first, with no such trigger yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$658,461Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States maintains a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium in place since 1992, with no explosive tests conducted amid ongoing stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site under the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects persistent low implied probabilities due to technical assessments from NNSA and U.S. Strategic Command indicating no military need for resumption, despite Trump administration considerations of underground tests in response to reported Chinese and Russian activities. Recent developments include a April 29 CTBTO head's warning against U.S. and Russian testing, and NNSA's non-explosive detection experiment last week; the January 14 milestone marked the longest global no-test stretch since 1945. The FY2026 NDAA authorizes tests only if a foreign state detonates first, with no such trigger yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$658,461Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States maintains a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium in place since 1992, with no explosive tests conducted amid ongoing stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site under the National Nuclear Security Administration. Trader sentiment reflects persistent low implied probabilities due to technical assessments from NNSA and U.S. Strategic Command indicating no military need for resumption, despite Trump administration considerations of underground tests in response to reported Chinese and Russian activities. Recent developments include a April 29 CTBTO head's warning against U.S. and Russian testing, and NNSA's non-explosive detection experiment last week; the January 14 milestone marked the longest global no-test stretch since 1945. The FY2026 NDAA authorizes tests only if a foreign state detonates first, with no such trigger yet.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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