Trader consensus prices a mere 10% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the enduring 1992 congressional moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, which the U.S. has upheld through subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full detonations. No verified resumption plans have emerged in the past 30 days, despite earlier 2026 signals from Trump administration officials assessing underground test options amid tensions with Russia and China. Last week, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against breaching the norm, underscoring global non-proliferation pressures. Barriers include CTBT obligations, international backlash, and lack of scheduled tests or policy shifts, though geopolitical escalations could alter dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$658,492 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
3%
30. September 2026
6%
31. Dezember 2026
10%
$658,492 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$33,298 Vol.
3%
30. September 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31. Dezember 2026
$9,392 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 10% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the enduring 1992 congressional moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, which the U.S. has upheld through subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full detonations. No verified resumption plans have emerged in the past 30 days, despite earlier 2026 signals from Trump administration officials assessing underground test options amid tensions with Russia and China. Last week, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against breaching the norm, underscoring global non-proliferation pressures. Barriers include CTBT obligations, international backlash, and lack of scheduled tests or policy shifts, though geopolitical escalations could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$658,492Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 10% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the enduring 1992 congressional moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, which the U.S. has upheld through subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full detonations. No verified resumption plans have emerged in the past 30 days, despite earlier 2026 signals from Trump administration officials assessing underground test options amid tensions with Russia and China. Last week, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against breaching the norm, underscoring global non-proliferation pressures. Barriers include CTBT obligations, international backlash, and lack of scheduled tests or policy shifts, though geopolitical escalations could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$658,492Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 10% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the enduring 1992 congressional moratorium on explosive nuclear testing, which the U.S. has upheld through subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full detonations. No verified resumption plans have emerged in the past 30 days, despite earlier 2026 signals from Trump administration officials assessing underground test options amid tensions with Russia and China. Last week, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against breaching the norm, underscoring global non-proliferation pressures. Barriers include CTBT obligations, international backlash, and lack of scheduled tests or policy shifts, though geopolitical escalations could alter dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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