**President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked the market, but subsequent clarifications and technical realities have kept implied probabilities low.** The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on yield-producing explosive tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program. Administration officials quickly signaled that references to “testing” likely encompassed non-explosive activities such as delivery system flights, subcritical experiments, or enhanced stockpile surveillance rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical assessments from the National Nuclear Security Administration and congressional reports indicate that preparing for an underground explosive test would require 24–36 months under current readiness plans, with regulatory, environmental, and safety hurdles potentially extending that timeline further. As of mid-2026, no such test has occurred, and U.S. compliance reporting continues to highlight concerns over Russian and Chinese activities without triggering an immediate U.S. response. Market pricing for a test by December 31, 2026, reflects these barriers alongside diplomatic and domestic political considerations that could delay or redirect any decision. Upcoming factors that could shift sentiment include FY2027 budget and National Defense Authorization Act outcomes, any new presidential statements on testing policy, or verified escalations in foreign testing programs.