**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Trader consensus prices the chance of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026 at roughly 5–8 percent across listed dates, reflecting the continued 1992 moratorium and repeated official clarifications that no full-yield detonations are planned. President Trump’s October 2025 social-media directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate walk-backs by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who stated that near-term activities would involve only subcritical or non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual stockpile stewardship certifications continue to affirm reliability without explosive testing, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and congressional measures to codify the moratorium have reinforced caution. Preparations for any explosive test would require 24–36 months, and no such activities have been confirmed through September 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$795,287 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?**
Trader consensus prices the chance of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026 at roughly 5–8 percent across listed dates, reflecting the continued 1992 moratorium and repeated official clarifications that no full-yield detonations are planned. President Trump’s October 2025 social-media directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate walk-backs by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who stated that near-term activities would involve only subcritical or non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual stockpile stewardship certifications continue to affirm reliability without explosive testing, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and congressional measures to codify the moratorium have reinforced caution. Preparations for any explosive test would require 24–36 months, and no such activities have been confirmed through September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$795,287Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?**
Trader consensus prices the chance of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026 at roughly 5–8 percent across listed dates, reflecting the continued 1992 moratorium and repeated official clarifications that no full-yield detonations are planned. President Trump’s October 2025 social-media directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate walk-backs by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who stated that near-term activities would involve only subcritical or non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual stockpile stewardship certifications continue to affirm reliability without explosive testing, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and congressional measures to codify the moratorium have reinforced caution. Preparations for any explosive test would require 24–36 months, and no such activities have been confirmed through September 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$795,287Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Trader consensus prices the chance of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026 at roughly 5–8 percent across listed dates, reflecting the continued 1992 moratorium and repeated official clarifications that no full-yield detonations are planned. President Trump’s October 2025 social-media directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted immediate walk-backs by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who stated that near-term activities would involve only subcritical or non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual stockpile stewardship certifications continue to affirm reliability without explosive testing, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and congressional measures to codify the moratorium have reinforced caution. Preparations for any explosive test would require 24–36 months, and no such activities have been confirmed through September 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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