President Donald Trump’s public statements directing preparations for U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia have shaped trader views, alongside confidential U.S. diplomatic pressure on Beijing over suspected violations at sites like Lop Nur. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and administration clarifications have narrowed the scope to subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or non-yield system evaluations rather than full-yield detonations. Ongoing modernization programs such as the W93 warhead and stockpile stewardship continue without crossing into yield-producing events. Key upcoming factors include any formal policy shifts, verification talks, or responses at multilateral forums that could alter timelines before market resolution dates.