The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining limited readiness for potential resumption within roughly 36 months if directed. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including possible low-yield or decoupled tests; subsequent statements from officials distinguished between explosive tests and delivery-system evaluations. No yield-producing U.S. test has occurred since those remarks. Congress has funded nuclear modernization programs, including the SLCM-N, while New START’s expiration has heightened focus on stockpile stewardship without altering the testing moratorium. Technical, budgetary, and diplomatic factors continue to shape any path toward resumed explosive testing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$670,195 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
1%
30. September 2026
5%
31. Dezember 2026
9%
$670,195 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$42,083 Vol.
1%
30. September 2026
$7,151 Vol.
5%
31. Dezember 2026
$10,742 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining limited readiness for potential resumption within roughly 36 months if directed. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including possible low-yield or decoupled tests; subsequent statements from officials distinguished between explosive tests and delivery-system evaluations. No yield-producing U.S. test has occurred since those remarks. Congress has funded nuclear modernization programs, including the SLCM-N, while New START’s expiration has heightened focus on stockpile stewardship without altering the testing moratorium. Technical, budgetary, and diplomatic factors continue to shape any path toward resumed explosive testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$670,195Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining limited readiness for potential resumption within roughly 36 months if directed. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including possible low-yield or decoupled tests; subsequent statements from officials distinguished between explosive tests and delivery-system evaluations. No yield-producing U.S. test has occurred since those remarks. Congress has funded nuclear modernization programs, including the SLCM-N, while New START’s expiration has heightened focus on stockpile stewardship without altering the testing moratorium. Technical, budgetary, and diplomatic factors continue to shape any path toward resumed explosive testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$670,195Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining limited readiness for potential resumption within roughly 36 months if directed. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including possible low-yield or decoupled tests; subsequent statements from officials distinguished between explosive tests and delivery-system evaluations. No yield-producing U.S. test has occurred since those remarks. Congress has funded nuclear modernization programs, including the SLCM-N, while New START’s expiration has heightened focus on stockpile stewardship without altering the testing moratorium. Technical, budgetary, and diplomatic factors continue to shape any path toward resumed explosive testing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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