Russian forces continue assaults near Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast to establish a defensive buffer zone shielding Belgorod, but Institute for the Study of War assessments as of March 26 confirm no territorial gains, with Ukrainian forces advancing in southwestern sectors of the town amid geolocated footage. Over the past week, Russian infiltration efforts using infantry, FPV drones, and unmanned ground vehicles have faltered against Ukraine's expanding "kill zone," forcing equipment withdrawals into rear areas and limiting mechanized attacks. Vovchansk remains divided and devastated, with Ukrainian positions holding firm, underscoring significant barriers to full capture before imminent market deadlines like March 31. Ongoing frontline clashes could shift dynamics, though recent patterns favor prolonged contention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Russland ganz Vovchansk erobern, bis...?
Wird Russland ganz Vovchansk erobern, bis...?
$830,062 Vol.
31. März
2%
30. April
10%
$830,062 Vol.
31. März
2%
30. April
10%
Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue assaults near Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast to establish a defensive buffer zone shielding Belgorod, but Institute for the Study of War assessments as of March 26 confirm no territorial gains, with Ukrainian forces advancing in southwestern sectors of the town amid geolocated footage. Over the past week, Russian infiltration efforts using infantry, FPV drones, and unmanned ground vehicles have faltered against Ukraine's expanding "kill zone," forcing equipment withdrawals into rear areas and limiting mechanized attacks. Vovchansk remains divided and devastated, with Ukrainian positions holding firm, underscoring significant barriers to full capture before imminent market deadlines like March 31. Ongoing frontline clashes could shift dynamics, though recent patterns favor prolonged contention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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