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Geopolitik·Nato

Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Nato

Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?

$1,725,331 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,725,331 Vol.

Polymarket

31. März

$1,537,576 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between October 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Russia and NATO persist amid the Ukraine war, with no confirmed Russian strike on NATO member territory to date, though recent airspace violations have heightened concerns. In early October 2024, Russian drones entered Romanian airspace during attacks on Ukraine, and a missile fragment landed in Poland, drawing NATO statements on monitoring and readiness without invoking Article 5. Moscow's large-scale missile barrages on Ukrainian cities near NATO borders continue, alongside Putin's rhetoric warning against Western escalation. NATO affirms collective defense commitments, while traders weigh risks of miscalculation, deliberate provocation, or spillover. The US presidential election on November 5 and potential changes in aid to Ukraine represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift escalation dynamics.

Tensions between Russia and NATO persist amid the Ukraine war, with no confirmed Russian strike on NATO member territory to date, though recent airspace violations have heightened concerns. In early October 2024, Russian drones entered Romanian airspace during attacks on Ukraine, and a missile fragment landed in Poland, drawing NATO statements on monitoring and readiness without invoking Article 5. Moscow's large-scale missile barrages on Ukrainian cities near NATO borders continue, alongside Putin's rhetoric warning against Western escalation. NATO affirms collective defense commitments, while traders weigh risks of miscalculation, deliberate provocation, or spillover. The US presidential election on November 5 and potential changes in aid to Ukraine represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift escalation dynamics.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between October 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Russia and NATO persist amid the Ukraine war, with no confirmed Russian strike on NATO member territory to date, though recent airspace violations have heightened concerns. In early October 2024, Russian drones entered Romanian airspace during attacks on Ukraine, and a missile fragment landed in Poland, drawing NATO statements on monitoring and readiness without invoking Article 5. Moscow's large-scale missile barrages on Ukrainian cities near NATO borders continue, alongside Putin's rhetoric warning against Western escalation. NATO affirms collective defense commitments, while traders weigh risks of miscalculation, deliberate provocation, or spillover. The US presidential election on November 5 and potential changes in aid to Ukraine represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift escalation dynamics.

Tensions between Russia and NATO persist amid the Ukraine war, with no confirmed Russian strike on NATO member territory to date, though recent airspace violations have heightened concerns. In early October 2024, Russian drones entered Romanian airspace during attacks on Ukraine, and a missile fragment landed in Poland, drawing NATO statements on monitoring and readiness without invoking Article 5. Moscow's large-scale missile barrages on Ukrainian cities near NATO borders continue, alongside Putin's rhetoric warning against Western escalation. NATO affirms collective defense commitments, while traders weigh risks of miscalculation, deliberate provocation, or spillover. The US presidential election on November 5 and potential changes in aid to Ukraine represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift escalation dynamics.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. März" mit 1%, gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 1¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $1.7 million generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 24, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 3 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ist „31. März" mit nur 1%, dicht gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 0%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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