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Geopolitik·Nato

Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Nato

Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?

$1,733,931 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,733,931 Vol.

Polymarket

31. März

$1,546,181 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between October 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Russian drone incursions into Estonia and Latvia—both NATO members—have spiked escalation concerns, with one drone striking a power station chimney in Estonia during a massive assault on Ukraine just days ago, prompting allied airspace scrambles and an emergency NATO meeting. Though deemed stray amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war now in its fourth year, these near-misses highlight spillover risks from intensified missile and drone campaigns targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. No intentional strikes on NATO territory have occurred, but warnings of Russian hybrid attacks on railways, sea cables, and supply chains persist, alongside stalled peace talks and potential shifts in U.S. military aid. Battlefield stalemates and diplomatic rhetoric continue shaping trader assessments of direct confrontation probabilities.

Recent Russian drone incursions into Estonia and Latvia—both NATO members—have spiked escalation concerns, with one drone striking a power station chimney in Estonia during a massive assault on Ukraine just days ago, prompting allied airspace scrambles and an emergency NATO meeting. Though deemed stray amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war now in its fourth year, these near-misses highlight spillover risks from intensified missile and drone campaigns targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. No intentional strikes on NATO territory have occurred, but warnings of Russian hybrid attacks on railways, sea cables, and supply chains persist, alongside stalled peace talks and potential shifts in U.S. military aid. Battlefield stalemates and diplomatic rhetoric continue shaping trader assessments of direct confrontation probabilities.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between October 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Russian drone incursions into Estonia and Latvia—both NATO members—have spiked escalation concerns, with one drone striking a power station chimney in Estonia during a massive assault on Ukraine just days ago, prompting allied airspace scrambles and an emergency NATO meeting. Though deemed stray amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war now in its fourth year, these near-misses highlight spillover risks from intensified missile and drone campaigns targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. No intentional strikes on NATO territory have occurred, but warnings of Russian hybrid attacks on railways, sea cables, and supply chains persist, alongside stalled peace talks and potential shifts in U.S. military aid. Battlefield stalemates and diplomatic rhetoric continue shaping trader assessments of direct confrontation probabilities.

Recent Russian drone incursions into Estonia and Latvia—both NATO members—have spiked escalation concerns, with one drone striking a power station chimney in Estonia during a massive assault on Ukraine just days ago, prompting allied airspace scrambles and an emergency NATO meeting. Though deemed stray amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war now in its fourth year, these near-misses highlight spillover risks from intensified missile and drone campaigns targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. No intentional strikes on NATO territory have occurred, but warnings of Russian hybrid attacks on railways, sea cables, and supply chains persist, alongside stalled peace talks and potential shifts in U.S. military aid. Battlefield stalemates and diplomatic rhetoric continue shaping trader assessments of direct confrontation probabilities.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. März" mit 0%, gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 0¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 0% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $1.7 million generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 24, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Russischer Angriff auf ein NATO-Mitglied durch...?" ist „31. März" mit nur 0%, dicht gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 0%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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