Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's detention in a Brooklyn federal jail, following his January 3, 2026 capture by US forces and ongoing narcoterrorism trial, drives trader consensus to 99.9% "No" on exile to Russia by March 31. Recent March 26 court proceedings saw a judge reject his defense's motion to dismiss charges, solidifying his US custody amid disputes over legal fees from Venezuela. Russia condemned the operation and previously explored Vatican-mediated asylum offers, but took no concrete action to extract him. With just days until resolution, traders view sudden release, diplomatic intervention, or flight to Moscow as implausible absent extraordinary legal or geopolitical shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$162,045 Vol.
$162,045 Vol.
Ja
$162,045 Vol.
$162,045 Vol.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's detention in a Brooklyn federal jail, following his January 3, 2026 capture by US forces and ongoing narcoterrorism trial, drives trader consensus to 99.9% "No" on exile to Russia by March 31. Recent March 26 court proceedings saw a judge reject his defense's motion to dismiss charges, solidifying his US custody amid disputes over legal fees from Venezuela. Russia condemned the operation and previously explored Vatican-mediated asylum offers, but took no concrete action to extract him. With just days until resolution, traders view sudden release, diplomatic intervention, or flight to Moscow as implausible absent extraordinary legal or geopolitical shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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