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Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

Market icon

Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$22,543 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$22,543 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive).

This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive).

If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.
Volumen
$22,543
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Oct 11, 2024, 6:44 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive).

This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive).

If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range.

If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.
Volumen
$22,543
Enddatum
Nov 4, 2024
Markt eröffnet
Oct 11, 2024, 6:44 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 60% or greater chance likely of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). This market will resolve to "No" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between October 10 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). If neither threshold is met before the election this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve as soon as either threshold is met, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kama Harris.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?" has generated $22.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.