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Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

Market icon
Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

$158,296 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$158,296 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

67%

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

65%

Matt Gaetz

$0 Vol.

50%

Daniel Penny

$1 Vol.

41%

Keonne Rodriguez

$0 Vol.

29%

Ryan Salame

$15,064 Vol.

26%

Young Thug

$3,983 Vol.

34%

Steve Bannon

$0 Vol.

20%

Roger Ver

$0 Vol.

18%

Elizabeth Holmes

$915 Vol.

16%

Martin Shkreli

$2,795 Vol.

13%

Nicolás Maduro

$5,967 Vol.

10%

Do Kwon

$15,747 Vol.

10%

Hunter Biden

$2,046 Vol.

9%

Derek Chauvin

$6,319 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$60 Vol.

9%

Bob Menendez

$0 Vol.

22%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$9,573 Vol.

8%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$35,026 Vol.

7%

Sich selbst

$2,448 Vol.

7%

Diddy

$5,826 Vol.

7%

Edward Snowden

$1,748 Vol.

15%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

5%

Elon Musk

$48,946 Vol.

5%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

14%

Julian Assange

$1,500 Vol.

10%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's second-term clemency grants, exceeding 140 pardons by late 2025 including mass relief for January 6 defendants and individuals convicted of fraud or tied to donors, have shaped trader consensus on future recipients before 2027. Recent January 2026 actions, such as pardoning Adriana Isabel Camberos for a second time after a post-commutation conviction and figures linked to political contributions like a bribery-implicated banker, underscore a pattern favoring white-collar offenders and allies. High implied probabilities for Stefan and Donald Brodie reflect their prior Cuba sanctions convictions, Biden pardon denial, and post-election donations exceeding $3.5 million to Trump initiatives; Matt Gaetz's odds tie to his past DOJ probe history despite no charges. No fixed timeline exists, but DOJ announcements could shift markets amid ongoing legal pressures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$158,296
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's second-term clemency grants, exceeding 140 pardons by late 2025 including mass relief for January 6 defendants and individuals convicted of fraud or tied to donors, have shaped trader consensus on future recipients before 2027. Recent January 2026 actions, such as pardoning Adriana Isabel Camberos for a second time after a post-commutation conviction and figures linked to political contributions like a bribery-implicated banker, underscore a pattern favoring white-collar offenders and allies. High implied probabilities for Stefan and Donald Brodie reflect their prior Cuba sanctions convictions, Biden pardon denial, and post-election donations exceeding $3.5 million to Trump initiatives; Matt Gaetz's odds tie to his past DOJ probe history despite no charges. No fixed timeline exists, but DOJ announcements could shift markets amid ongoing legal pressures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$158,296
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 27 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Stefan Brodie" mit 67%, gefolgt von „Donald Brodie" mit 65%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 67¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $158.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 18, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ist „Stefan Brodie" mit 67%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 67% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Donald Brodie" mit 65%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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