Tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage. In the past 30 days, Israel has intensified operations against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while US and allied forces conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—Tehran's key regional ally—but spared Iranian soil. IAEA censured Iran this month for nuclear non-compliance and uranium enrichment advances, heightening escalation risks. Traders monitor Israeli threats of preemptive nuclear site strikes, potential US policy shifts post-inauguration, and the late-March IAEA board meeting, all capable of triggering action before the March 31 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,055,960 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
VAE
7%
Saudi-Arabien
6%
Bahrain
4%
Kuwait
4%
Katar
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
2%
Ein EU-Land
2%
Türkei
1%
Jordanien
1%
Frankreich
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Oman
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,055,960 Vol.
VAE
$2,497,333 Vol.
7%
Saudi-Arabien
$1,980,725 Vol.
6%
Bahrain
$378,719 Vol.
4%
Kuwait
$197,710 Vol.
4%
Katar
$912,782 Vol.
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$925,278 Vol.
2%
Ein EU-Land
$438,309 Vol.
2%
Türkei
$465,382 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$181,282 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$718,665 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$898,883 Vol.
<1%
Oman
$127,932 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$333,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage. In the past 30 days, Israel has intensified operations against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while US and allied forces conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—Tehran's key regional ally—but spared Iranian soil. IAEA censured Iran this month for nuclear non-compliance and uranium enrichment advances, heightening escalation risks. Traders monitor Israeli threats of preemptive nuclear site strikes, potential US policy shifts post-inauguration, and the late-March IAEA board meeting, all capable of triggering action before the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,055,960Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage. In the past 30 days, Israel has intensified operations against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while US and allied forces conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—Tehran's key regional ally—but spared Iranian soil. IAEA censured Iran this month for nuclear non-compliance and uranium enrichment advances, heightening escalation risks. Traders monitor Israeli threats of preemptive nuclear site strikes, potential US policy shifts post-inauguration, and the late-March IAEA board meeting, all capable of triggering action before the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,055,960Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024, following Tehran's missile barrage. In the past 30 days, Israel has intensified operations against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and proxies in Syria, while US and allied forces conducted strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—Tehran's key regional ally—but spared Iranian soil. IAEA censured Iran this month for nuclear non-compliance and uranium enrichment advances, heightening escalation risks. Traders monitor Israeli threats of preemptive nuclear site strikes, potential US policy shifts post-inauguration, and the late-March IAEA board meeting, all capable of triggering action before the March 31 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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