Plaid Cymru's commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election reflects surging support amid Welsh Labour's ongoing leadership turmoil, including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's resignation in July 2024 following a lost no-confidence vote over a controversial donation scandal. New Labour leader Eluned Morgan faces poor approval ratings and fragmented support in recent polls, eroding the party's traditional dominance under the Senedd's mixed-member proportional representation system (40 constituency seats via first-past-the-post, 20 regional list seats). Reform UK's 24% positioning stems from its strong showing in the July UK general election vote share in Wales, appealing to disaffected Conservative and Brexit voters as a populist challenger. Other parties trail due to limited regional appeal, with the 2026 election timeline allowing for shifts from coalition negotiations or snap election calls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahl in Wales
Gewinner der Parlamentswahl in Wales
Plaid Cymru 74%
Reform UK 24%
Welsh Labour <1%
Walisische Konservative <1%
Welsh Labour
1%
Plaid Cymru
74%
Walisische Konservative
<1%
Reform UK
24%
Walisische Liberaldemokraten
<1%
Walisische Grüne Partei
<1%
Plaid Cymru 74%
Reform UK 24%
Welsh Labour <1%
Walisische Konservative <1%
Welsh Labour
1%
Plaid Cymru
74%
Walisische Konservative
<1%
Reform UK
24%
Walisische Liberaldemokraten
<1%
Walisische Grüne Partei
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Plaid Cymru's commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election reflects surging support amid Welsh Labour's ongoing leadership turmoil, including former First Minister Vaughan Gething's resignation in July 2024 following a lost no-confidence vote over a controversial donation scandal. New Labour leader Eluned Morgan faces poor approval ratings and fragmented support in recent polls, eroding the party's traditional dominance under the Senedd's mixed-member proportional representation system (40 constituency seats via first-past-the-post, 20 regional list seats). Reform UK's 24% positioning stems from its strong showing in the July UK general election vote share in Wales, appealing to disaffected Conservative and Brexit voters as a populist challenger. Other parties trail due to limited regional appeal, with the 2026 election timeline allowing for shifts from coalition negotiations or snap election calls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen