Trader consensus prices a mere 2% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31 amid the ongoing war now in its second month, with probabilities rising to 22% by April 10, 41% by April 30, and 73% by June 30, reflecting skepticism over near-term breakthroughs despite diplomatic overtures. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected US ceasefire demands as "unreasonable" on March 30, denying direct negotiations hours after President Trump claimed progress via a 15-point peace plan and talks with a "respected" Iranian figure. Secretary Rubio reiterated preference for diplomacy over ground invasion, but Tehran demands unilateral US halt to airstrikes first. February's Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva stalled without agreement, while Pakistan proposes hosting high-level discussions, keeping later outcomes viable amid escalation risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDiplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?
Diplomatisches Treffen USA x Iran bis zum...?
$1,096,676 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
31. März
1%
10. April
16%
30. April
40%
30. Juni
71%
$1,096,676 Vol.
31. März
$698,044 Vol.
1%
10. April
$12,751 Vol.
16%
30. April
$117,882 Vol.
40%
30. Juni
$22,420 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 2% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31 amid the ongoing war now in its second month, with probabilities rising to 22% by April 10, 41% by April 30, and 73% by June 30, reflecting skepticism over near-term breakthroughs despite diplomatic overtures. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected US ceasefire demands as "unreasonable" on March 30, denying direct negotiations hours after President Trump claimed progress via a 15-point peace plan and talks with a "respected" Iranian figure. Secretary Rubio reiterated preference for diplomacy over ground invasion, but Tehran demands unilateral US halt to airstrikes first. February's Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva stalled without agreement, while Pakistan proposes hosting high-level discussions, keeping later outcomes viable amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volumen
$1,096,676Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 2% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31 amid the ongoing war now in its second month, with probabilities rising to 22% by April 10, 41% by April 30, and 73% by June 30, reflecting skepticism over near-term breakthroughs despite diplomatic overtures. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected US ceasefire demands as "unreasonable" on March 30, denying direct negotiations hours after President Trump claimed progress via a 15-point peace plan and talks with a "respected" Iranian figure. Secretary Rubio reiterated preference for diplomacy over ground invasion, but Tehran demands unilateral US halt to airstrikes first. February's Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva stalled without agreement, while Pakistan proposes hosting high-level discussions, keeping later outcomes viable amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,096,676Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 2% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31 amid the ongoing war now in its second month, with probabilities rising to 22% by April 10, 41% by April 30, and 73% by June 30, reflecting skepticism over near-term breakthroughs despite diplomatic overtures. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected US ceasefire demands as "unreasonable" on March 30, denying direct negotiations hours after President Trump claimed progress via a 15-point peace plan and talks with a "respected" Iranian figure. Secretary Rubio reiterated preference for diplomacy over ground invasion, but Tehran demands unilateral US halt to airstrikes first. February's Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva stalled without agreement, while Pakistan proposes hosting high-level discussions, keeping later outcomes viable amid escalation risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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