US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iranian territory on April 3 following the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle, successfully extracting one crew member while searching for the second, marking the first confirmed deliberate ground entry by active US military personnel amid the war that erupted with US-Israel airstrikes on February 28. Escalating exchanges have caused US casualties, prompted troop surges beyond 50,000 in the region—including Marine Expeditionary Units and 82nd Airborne—and precision strikes on Iranian command targets. Traders assess whether such special operations qualify under market resolution criteria requiring terrestrial entry for operational purposes, with upcoming risks of broader invasion, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic ceasefire efforts potentially tipping probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS-Streitkräfte dringen in den Iran ein durch...?
US-Streitkräfte dringen in den Iran ein durch...?
$115,932,676 Vol.
3. März 2026
31. März
<1%
30. April
84%
31. Dezember
90%
$115,932,676 Vol.
31. März
$72,770,112 Vol.
<1%
30. April
$30,441,987 Vol.
84%
31. Dezember
$10,663,297 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iranian territory on April 3 following the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle, successfully extracting one crew member while searching for the second, marking the first confirmed deliberate ground entry by active US military personnel amid the war that erupted with US-Israel airstrikes on February 28. Escalating exchanges have caused US casualties, prompted troop surges beyond 50,000 in the region—including Marine Expeditionary Units and 82nd Airborne—and precision strikes on Iranian command targets. Traders assess whether such special operations qualify under market resolution criteria requiring terrestrial entry for operational purposes, with upcoming risks of broader invasion, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic ceasefire efforts potentially tipping probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volumen
$115,932,676Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iranian territory on April 3 following the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle, successfully extracting one crew member while searching for the second, marking the first confirmed deliberate ground entry by active US military personnel amid the war that erupted with US-Israel airstrikes on February 28. Escalating exchanges have caused US casualties, prompted troop surges beyond 50,000 in the region—including Marine Expeditionary Units and 82nd Airborne—and precision strikes on Iranian command targets. Traders assess whether such special operations qualify under market resolution criteria requiring terrestrial entry for operational purposes, with upcoming risks of broader invasion, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic ceasefire efforts potentially tipping probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$115,932,676Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US special forces conducted a combat search-and-rescue operation inside Iranian territory on April 3 following the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle, successfully extracting one crew member while searching for the second, marking the first confirmed deliberate ground entry by active US military personnel amid the war that erupted with US-Israel airstrikes on February 28. Escalating exchanges have caused US casualties, prompted troop surges beyond 50,000 in the region—including Marine Expeditionary Units and 82nd Airborne—and precision strikes on Iranian command targets. Traders assess whether such special operations qualify under market resolution criteria requiring terrestrial entry for operational purposes, with upcoming risks of broader invasion, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, or diplomatic ceasefire efforts potentially tipping probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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