Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, driven by the absence of any official State Department announcements, heightened security alerts, or logistical preparations indicating such a move. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions—including Gaza operations, Hezbollah exchanges, and Houthi disruptions—the embassy remains fully operational with standard security protocols intact, as confirmed by recent U.S. diplomatic updates. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations, like Kabul in 2021, require imminent existential threats absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalations, such as direct Iranian strikes on Israeli population centers or a major terrorist incident overwhelming defenses, though traders price these as highly improbable within the tight timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$44,300 Vol.
$44,300 Vol.
Ja
$44,300 Vol.
$44,300 Vol.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, driven by the absence of any official State Department announcements, heightened security alerts, or logistical preparations indicating such a move. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions—including Gaza operations, Hezbollah exchanges, and Houthi disruptions—the embassy remains fully operational with standard security protocols intact, as confirmed by recent U.S. diplomatic updates. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations, like Kabul in 2021, require imminent existential threats absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalations, such as direct Iranian strikes on Israeli population centers or a major terrorist incident overwhelming defenses, though traders price these as highly improbable within the tight timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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