The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem remains fully operational with no State Department announcements, evacuation orders, or heightened alerts signaling withdrawal by March 31, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 99%. Amid ongoing Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and de-escalation signals on the northern border with Hezbollah, recent diplomatic efforts—including U.S. envoy visits and aid coordination—reinforce stability, contrasting with temporary West Bank travel advisories that do not affect embassy staff. Historical precedent shows the facility enduring past conflicts without closure, bolstered by fortified security. Only a sudden major escalation, such as direct Iranian strikes or overwhelming attacks on Israeli defenses, could shift odds before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$46,728 Vol.
$46,728 Vol.
Ja
$46,728 Vol.
$46,728 Vol.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem remains fully operational with no State Department announcements, evacuation orders, or heightened alerts signaling withdrawal by March 31, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 99%. Amid ongoing Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and de-escalation signals on the northern border with Hezbollah, recent diplomatic efforts—including U.S. envoy visits and aid coordination—reinforce stability, contrasting with temporary West Bank travel advisories that do not affect embassy staff. Historical precedent shows the facility enduring past conflicts without closure, bolstered by fortified security. Only a sudden major escalation, such as direct Iranian strikes or overwhelming attacks on Israeli defenses, could shift odds before the deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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