Congressional gridlock and election-year distractions have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing, justifying trader consensus pricing "No" at 55.5% for enactment before 2027. Despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act and narrower bills on deepfakes and labeling passing House committees in September 2024, no measures have reached floor votes in the House or Senate amid competing priorities such as appropriations bills and budget deadlines. The Biden administration's October 2023 executive order on AI safety provided regulatory guardrails but cannot substitute for statutory law. With lame-duck sessions looming and a potential Republican-led Congress in 2025 favoring lighter-touch regulation, historical patterns of slow tech legislation reinforce skepticism for timely passage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$71,819 Vol.
$71,819 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$71,819 Vol.
$71,819 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and election-year distractions have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing, justifying trader consensus pricing "No" at 55.5% for enactment before 2027. Despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act and narrower bills on deepfakes and labeling passing House committees in September 2024, no measures have reached floor votes in the House or Senate amid competing priorities such as appropriations bills and budget deadlines. The Biden administration's October 2023 executive order on AI safety provided regulatory guardrails but cannot substitute for statutory law. With lame-duck sessions looming and a potential Republican-led Congress in 2025 favoring lighter-touch regulation, historical patterns of slow tech legislation reinforce skepticism for timely passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$71,819Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional gridlock and election-year distractions have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing, justifying trader consensus pricing "No" at 55.5% for enactment before 2027. Despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act and narrower bills on deepfakes and labeling passing House committees in September 2024, no measures have reached floor votes in the House or Senate amid competing priorities such as appropriations bills and budget deadlines. The Biden administration's October 2023 executive order on AI safety provided regulatory guardrails but cannot substitute for statutory law. With lame-duck sessions looming and a potential Republican-led Congress in 2025 favoring lighter-touch regulation, historical patterns of slow tech legislation reinforce skepticism for timely passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$71,819Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional gridlock and election-year distractions have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing, justifying trader consensus pricing "No" at 55.5% for enactment before 2027. Despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act and narrower bills on deepfakes and labeling passing House committees in September 2024, no measures have reached floor votes in the House or Senate amid competing priorities such as appropriations bills and budget deadlines. The Biden administration's October 2023 executive order on AI safety provided regulatory guardrails but cannot substitute for statutory law. With lame-duck sessions looming and a potential Republican-led Congress in 2025 favoring lighter-touch regulation, historical patterns of slow tech legislation reinforce skepticism for timely passage.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen