Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi's strong hold on New York's 3rd Congressional District, bolstered by his 2024 special election win (53.9%-45.9%) and narrow general reelection (51.7%-48.1% over Michael LiPetri Jr.), positions the Democratic Party as trader consensus favorite at 76.5% implied probability. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Lean Democratic, citing Suozzi's fundraising dominance—among the highest for vulnerable Democrats—and moderate appeal in this Nassau-Queens battleground. Recent GOP primary filings feature LiPetri's rematch bid alongside challengers Gregory Hach and Michael Lavery, potentially diluting resources before the June 23 primaries, while Suozzi faces only Danielle Welch. Absent early polls, incumbency and historical margins sustain the lopsided pricing despite midterm headwinds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNY-03 Wahlsieger
NY-03 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
76%
Republikanische Partei
24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
76%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi's strong hold on New York's 3rd Congressional District, bolstered by his 2024 special election win (53.9%-45.9%) and narrow general reelection (51.7%-48.1% over Michael LiPetri Jr.), positions the Democratic Party as trader consensus favorite at 76.5% implied probability. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Lean Democratic, citing Suozzi's fundraising dominance—among the highest for vulnerable Democrats—and moderate appeal in this Nassau-Queens battleground. Recent GOP primary filings feature LiPetri's rematch bid alongside challengers Gregory Hach and Michael Lavery, potentially diluting resources before the June 23 primaries, while Suozzi faces only Danielle Welch. Absent early polls, incumbency and historical margins sustain the lopsided pricing despite midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi's strong hold on New York's 3rd Congressional District, bolstered by his 2024 special election win (53.9%-45.9%) and narrow general reelection (51.7%-48.1% over Michael LiPetri Jr.), positions the Democratic Party as trader consensus favorite at 76.5% implied probability. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Lean Democratic, citing Suozzi's fundraising dominance—among the highest for vulnerable Democrats—and moderate appeal in this Nassau-Queens battleground. Recent GOP primary filings feature LiPetri's rematch bid alongside challengers Gregory Hach and Michael Lavery, potentially diluting resources before the June 23 primaries, while Suozzi faces only Danielle Welch. Absent early polls, incumbency and historical margins sustain the lopsided pricing despite midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi's strong hold on New York's 3rd Congressional District, bolstered by his 2024 special election win (53.9%-45.9%) and narrow general reelection (51.7%-48.1% over Michael LiPetri Jr.), positions the Democratic Party as trader consensus favorite at 76.5% implied probability. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the race Lean Democratic, citing Suozzi's fundraising dominance—among the highest for vulnerable Democrats—and moderate appeal in this Nassau-Queens battleground. Recent GOP primary filings feature LiPetri's rematch bid alongside challengers Gregory Hach and Michael Lavery, potentially diluting resources before the June 23 primaries, while Suozzi faces only Danielle Welch. Absent early polls, incumbency and historical margins sustain the lopsided pricing despite midterm headwinds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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