Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNJ-04 Wahlsieger
NJ-04 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
91%
Demokratische Partei
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
91%
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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