Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, leading Fidesz by 9-16 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election amid economic stagnation and large anti-government rallies in Budapest. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as blackouts, protests, and U.S. demands for his resignation during bilateral talks intensify the island's crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 5.8% reflects coalition strains and failure to pass a state budget by late March, risking snap elections despite recent Iran war tensions not boosting polls. Lower odds for others underscore these as primary catalysts before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDer nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?
Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 5.5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.7%
$2,763,661 Vol.
$2,763,661 Vol.
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident
57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba
16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister
5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister
5%
Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin
3%
Putin - Präsident Russlands
2%
Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien
1%
Keiner vor 2027
1%
Trump - Präsident der USA
1%
Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine
1%
Macron - Präsident Frankreichs
1%
Abbas – Präsident von Palästina
1%
Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh
1%
Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin
1%
Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien
1%
Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister
1%
Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien
1%
al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien
1%
Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei
<1%
Milei - Präsident von Argentinien
<1%
Albanese - Australiens Premierminister
<1%
Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler
<1%
Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko
<1%
Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea
<1%
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 5.5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.7%
$2,763,661 Vol.
$2,763,661 Vol.
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident
57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba
16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister
5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister
5%
Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin
3%
Putin - Präsident Russlands
2%
Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien
1%
Keiner vor 2027
1%
Trump - Präsident der USA
1%
Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine
1%
Macron - Präsident Frankreichs
1%
Abbas – Präsident von Palästina
1%
Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh
1%
Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin
1%
Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien
1%
Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister
1%
Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien
1%
al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien
1%
Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei
<1%
Milei - Präsident von Argentinien
<1%
Albanese - Australiens Premierminister
<1%
Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler
<1%
Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko
<1%
Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power first at 57%, driven by polls showing the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, leading Fidesz by 9-16 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election amid economic stagnation and large anti-government rallies in Budapest. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as blackouts, protests, and U.S. demands for his resignation during bilateral talks intensify the island's crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 5.8% reflects coalition strains and failure to pass a state budget by late March, risking snap elections despite recent Iran war tensions not boosting polls. Lower odds for others underscore these as primary catalysts before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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