Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 57% to exit power before 2027, reflecting recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza by 9-16 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by economic stagnation, scandals, and challenger Péter Magyar's surge. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 15.5% amid escalating protests over nationwide blackouts and food shortages this month, including attacks on Communist offices and nascent US talks. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 5% odds stem from coalition strains and opposition calls for early elections despite postponement plans, while UK PM Keir Starmer's 4.7% ties to rock-bottom approval ratings from policy U-turns and scandals. Hungary's vote next week looms as a key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDer nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?
Der nächste Anführer, der vor 2027 nicht mehr an der Macht ist?
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 5.0%
Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.7%
$3,067,155 Vol.
$3,067,155 Vol.
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident
57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba
16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister
5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister
5%
Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin
3%
Putin - Präsident Russlands
2%
Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien
1%
Keiner vor 2027
1%
Trump - Präsident der USA
1%
Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine
1%
Macron - Präsident Frankreichs
1%
Abbas – Präsident von Palästina
1%
Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh
1%
Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin
1%
Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien
1%
Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister
1%
al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien
1%
Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei
<1%
Albanese - Australiens Premierminister
<1%
Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien
<1%
Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler
<1%
Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko
<1%
Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea
<1%
Milei - Präsident von Argentinien
<1%
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident 57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba 16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister 5.0%
Starmer – UK Premierminister 4.7%
$3,067,155 Vol.
$3,067,155 Vol.
Orbán - Ungarns Ministerpräsident
57%
Díaz-Canel - Präsident von Kuba
16%
Netanjahu – Israels Premierminister
5%
Starmer – UK Premierminister
5%
Takaichi - Japans Premierministerin
3%
Putin - Präsident Russlands
2%
Petro - Präsident von Kolumbien
1%
Keiner vor 2027
1%
Trump - Präsident der USA
1%
Selenskyj - Präsident der Ukraine
1%
Macron - Präsident Frankreichs
1%
Abbas – Präsident von Palästina
1%
Xi – Generalsekretär der KPCh
1%
Sánchez – Spanischer Premierminister
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuelas amtierende Präsidentin
1%
Lula da Silva - Präsident von Brasilien
1%
Lecornu - Frankreichs Premierminister
1%
al-Sharaa - Präsident von Syrien
1%
Erdoğan - Präsident der Türkei
<1%
Albanese - Australiens Premierminister
<1%
Newsom – Gouverneur von Kalifornien
<1%
Merz - Deutscher Bundeskanzler
<1%
Sheinbaum - Präsidentin von Mexiko
<1%
Kim – Oberster Führer von Nordkorea
<1%
Milei - Präsident von Argentinien
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading outcome at 57% to exit power before 2027, reflecting recent polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition Tisza by 9-16 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by economic stagnation, scandals, and challenger Péter Magyar's surge. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 15.5% amid escalating protests over nationwide blackouts and food shortages this month, including attacks on Communist offices and nascent US talks. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 5% odds stem from coalition strains and opposition calls for early elections despite postponement plans, while UK PM Keir Starmer's 4.7% ties to rock-bottom approval ratings from policy U-turns and scandals. Hungary's vote next week looms as a key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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