Recent BFMTV-Elabe polling underscores a tight 2027 French presidential race, with Jordan Bardella leading the first round at 35% amid National Rally's enduring strength from immigration concerns and the 2024 snap election gains, while Édouard Philippe trails at 20.5% but edges him in a second-round runoff (51.5%-48.5%) via centrist consolidation. Trader consensus reflects this dynamic, pricing both equally at 23.5% as frontrunners, as Philippe's broad appeal as former prime minister offsets Bardella's lead. Left fragmentation—Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann each around 10%—prevents a unified challenge, keeping Marine Le Pen sidelined by legal issues. Separation may emerge from official candidacy declarations, polling shifts, economic developments, or scandals ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Nächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,255,791 Vol.
$23,255,791 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
François Hollande
4%
Sarah Knafo
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Jean Castex
1%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,255,791 Vol.
$23,255,791 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
François Hollande
4%
Sarah Knafo
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Jean Castex
1%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent BFMTV-Elabe polling underscores a tight 2027 French presidential race, with Jordan Bardella leading the first round at 35% amid National Rally's enduring strength from immigration concerns and the 2024 snap election gains, while Édouard Philippe trails at 20.5% but edges him in a second-round runoff (51.5%-48.5%) via centrist consolidation. Trader consensus reflects this dynamic, pricing both equally at 23.5% as frontrunners, as Philippe's broad appeal as former prime minister offsets Bardella's lead. Left fragmentation—Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann each around 10%—prevents a unified challenge, keeping Marine Le Pen sidelined by legal issues. Separation may emerge from official candidacy declarations, polling shifts, economic developments, or scandals ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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