Trader consensus positions Dan Cox as the frontrunner at 53% implied probability for the Maryland Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his strong grip on the Trump-aligned base that drives low-turnout primaries, amplified by post-election enthusiasm following Donald Trump's 2024 victory. Recent polling from the Goucher College survey released October 28 shows Cox leading GOP primary voters 37%-24% over Ed Hale, up from earlier margins amid base consolidation and Cox's incumbency as the 2022 nominee. Hale's 33.6% stake stems from his self-funding capacity as a prominent businessman appealing to Hogan Republicans seeking a moderate alternative. Larry Hogan's slim 3.4% odds persist despite his cross-party popularity, as he has focused efforts on national roles rather than a third-term bid. Upcoming candidate announcements and filing deadlines ahead of the May 2026 primary could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDan Cox 52%
Ed Hale 32.5%
Christopher Bouchat 6%
Steve Hershey 4.0%
$81,091 Vol.
$81,091 Vol.
Dan Cox
52%
Ed Hale
33%
Christopher Bouchat
6%
Steve Hershey
4%
Larry Hogan
4%
Kurt Wedekind
3%
Carl Brunner
2%
John Myrick
2%
Dan Cox 52%
Ed Hale 32.5%
Christopher Bouchat 6%
Steve Hershey 4.0%
$81,091 Vol.
$81,091 Vol.
Dan Cox
52%
Ed Hale
33%
Christopher Bouchat
6%
Steve Hershey
4%
Larry Hogan
4%
Kurt Wedekind
3%
Carl Brunner
2%
John Myrick
2%
If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Dan Cox as the frontrunner at 53% implied probability for the Maryland Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his strong grip on the Trump-aligned base that drives low-turnout primaries, amplified by post-election enthusiasm following Donald Trump's 2024 victory. Recent polling from the Goucher College survey released October 28 shows Cox leading GOP primary voters 37%-24% over Ed Hale, up from earlier margins amid base consolidation and Cox's incumbency as the 2022 nominee. Hale's 33.6% stake stems from his self-funding capacity as a prominent businessman appealing to Hogan Republicans seeking a moderate alternative. Larry Hogan's slim 3.4% odds persist despite his cross-party popularity, as he has focused efforts on national roles rather than a third-term bid. Upcoming candidate announcements and filing deadlines ahead of the May 2026 primary could shift dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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