Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella as near-dead-even frontrunners at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities for the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting a fragmented field where recent municipal elections on March 15-22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities despite gains in Marseille, while limiting major city conquests and underscoring left-wing divisions. Philippe's centrist-right appeal as former prime minister gains traction amid ongoing parliamentary deadlock since 2024, contrasting Bardella's strong first-round polling leads (35-36% in latest Ifop and BFMTV surveys) but uncertain runoff performance. Key separators include candidate declarations, potential RN internal tensions sidelining Marine Le Pen, left coalitions behind figures like Glucksmann or Mélenchon, and economic catalysts before the April 2027 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Nächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,178,896 Vol.
$23,178,896 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Édouard Philippe 24%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$23,178,896 Vol.
$23,178,896 Vol.
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
8%
Dominique de Villepin
6%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
François Hollande
4%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Gabriel Attal
3%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Juan Branco
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella as near-dead-even frontrunners at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities for the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting a fragmented field where recent municipal elections on March 15-22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities despite gains in Marseille, while limiting major city conquests and underscoring left-wing divisions. Philippe's centrist-right appeal as former prime minister gains traction amid ongoing parliamentary deadlock since 2024, contrasting Bardella's strong first-round polling leads (35-36% in latest Ifop and BFMTV surveys) but uncertain runoff performance. Key separators include candidate declarations, potential RN internal tensions sidelining Marine Le Pen, left coalitions behind figures like Glucksmann or Mélenchon, and economic catalysts before the April 2027 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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