Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement creates an open Minnesota Senate seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting the state's left-leaning electorate and Democratic dominance in recent Senate races—no Republican statewide win since 2006. Early general election polls from February 2026 show leading Democratic primary contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (47%-41% over GOP frontrunner Michele Tafoya per Emerson) and Rep. Angie Craig (47%-40%) holding narrow leads, while GOP straw polls as recent as March 26 reveal divisions with Adam Schwarze topping Tafoya among delegates. Primaries on August 11 loom as potential consolidators, but trader consensus implies 88.5% odds for a Democratic victory amid these structural advantages and polling trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$15,255 Vol.
$15,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokrat
89%
Republikaner
12%
$15,255 Vol.
$15,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demokrat
$11,272 Vol.
89%
Republikaner
$3,983 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement creates an open Minnesota Senate seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting the state's left-leaning electorate and Democratic dominance in recent Senate races—no Republican statewide win since 2006. Early general election polls from February 2026 show leading Democratic primary contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (47%-41% over GOP frontrunner Michele Tafoya per Emerson) and Rep. Angie Craig (47%-40%) holding narrow leads, while GOP straw polls as recent as March 26 reveal divisions with Adam Schwarze topping Tafoya among delegates. Primaries on August 11 loom as potential consolidators, but trader consensus implies 88.5% odds for a Democratic victory amid these structural advantages and polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volumen
$15,255Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement creates an open Minnesota Senate seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting the state's left-leaning electorate and Democratic dominance in recent Senate races—no Republican statewide win since 2006. Early general election polls from February 2026 show leading Democratic primary contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (47%-41% over GOP frontrunner Michele Tafoya per Emerson) and Rep. Angie Craig (47%-40%) holding narrow leads, while GOP straw polls as recent as March 26 reveal divisions with Adam Schwarze topping Tafoya among delegates. Primaries on August 11 loom as potential consolidators, but trader consensus implies 88.5% odds for a Democratic victory amid these structural advantages and polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$15,255Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement creates an open Minnesota Senate seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, reflecting the state's left-leaning electorate and Democratic dominance in recent Senate races—no Republican statewide win since 2006. Early general election polls from February 2026 show leading Democratic primary contenders Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (47%-41% over GOP frontrunner Michele Tafoya per Emerson) and Rep. Angie Craig (47%-40%) holding narrow leads, while GOP straw polls as recent as March 26 reveal divisions with Adam Schwarze topping Tafoya among delegates. Primaries on August 11 loom as potential consolidators, but trader consensus implies 88.5% odds for a Democratic victory amid these structural advantages and polling trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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