Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at roughly 70% implied probability, driven by confirmed U.S. military strikes in six nations so far this year—Somalia (nearly 50 airstrikes against militants), Yemen (intensified Houthi operations under Operation Rough Rider), Syria and Iraq (ongoing ISIS counterterrorism via Hawkeye Strike), Iran (joint strikes since late February's Operation Epic Fury), and Venezuela (January incursion capturing Maduro). The tight race among top outcomes reflects uncertainty over additional Latin American narco-trafficking vessel strikes (potentially Colombia, Ecuador) amid Operation Total Extermination, plus Iranian proxy escalations. Recent Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations in Iran and U.S. ground force arrivals in the Middle East signal possible expansion, while diplomatic ceasefires or congressional war powers resolutions could cap the count.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGegen wie viele verschiedene Länder werden die USA 2026 militärisch vorgehen?
Gegen wie viele verschiedene Länder werden die USA 2026 militärisch vorgehen?
7 29.8%
8 24.7%
9 15.9%
10 11.8%
$724,273 Vol.
$724,273 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6
11%
7
30%
8
25%
9
16%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
4%
7 29.8%
8 24.7%
9 15.9%
10 11.8%
$724,273 Vol.
$724,273 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6
$417,366 Vol.
11%
7
$3,938 Vol.
30%
8
$8,001 Vol.
25%
9
$8,921 Vol.
16%
10
$10,276 Vol.
12%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
2%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at roughly 70% implied probability, driven by confirmed U.S. military strikes in six nations so far this year—Somalia (nearly 50 airstrikes against militants), Yemen (intensified Houthi operations under Operation Rough Rider), Syria and Iraq (ongoing ISIS counterterrorism via Hawkeye Strike), Iran (joint strikes since late February's Operation Epic Fury), and Venezuela (January incursion capturing Maduro). The tight race among top outcomes reflects uncertainty over additional Latin American narco-trafficking vessel strikes (potentially Colombia, Ecuador) amid Operation Total Extermination, plus Iranian proxy escalations. Recent Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations in Iran and U.S. ground force arrivals in the Middle East signal possible expansion, while diplomatic ceasefires or congressional war powers resolutions could cap the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$724,273Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at roughly 70% implied probability, driven by confirmed U.S. military strikes in six nations so far this year—Somalia (nearly 50 airstrikes against militants), Yemen (intensified Houthi operations under Operation Rough Rider), Syria and Iraq (ongoing ISIS counterterrorism via Hawkeye Strike), Iran (joint strikes since late February's Operation Epic Fury), and Venezuela (January incursion capturing Maduro). The tight race among top outcomes reflects uncertainty over additional Latin American narco-trafficking vessel strikes (potentially Colombia, Ecuador) amid Operation Total Extermination, plus Iranian proxy escalations. Recent Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations in Iran and U.S. ground force arrivals in the Middle East signal possible expansion, while diplomatic ceasefires or congressional war powers resolutions could cap the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$724,273Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at roughly 70% implied probability, driven by confirmed U.S. military strikes in six nations so far this year—Somalia (nearly 50 airstrikes against militants), Yemen (intensified Houthi operations under Operation Rough Rider), Syria and Iraq (ongoing ISIS counterterrorism via Hawkeye Strike), Iran (joint strikes since late February's Operation Epic Fury), and Venezuela (January incursion capturing Maduro). The tight race among top outcomes reflects uncertainty over additional Latin American narco-trafficking vessel strikes (potentially Colombia, Ecuador) amid Operation Total Extermination, plus Iranian proxy escalations. Recent Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations in Iran and U.S. ground force arrivals in the Middle East signal possible expansion, while diplomatic ceasefires or congressional war powers resolutions could cap the count.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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