Trader sentiment on peak 2026 inflation tilts toward moderation, with Polymarket implied probabilities favoring levels below 3% CPI year-over-year, reflecting the Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections showing median PCE at 2.0% for 2026 amid recent cooling—September CPI at 2.4% headline and 3.2% core. However, upside risks from the November 5 presidential election loom large, as a Trump victory could spur tariffs inflating import costs, echoing 2018-2019 dynamics when duties added 0.2-0.4% to CPI. Fiscal deficits and wage pressures persist, with next catalysts including October CPI on November 13 and December FOMC, where rate path signals will sharpen market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$244,677 Vol.
Über 3 %
98%
Über 3,5 %
67%
Über 4 %
47%
Über 5 %
26%
Über 6 %
14%
Über 8 %
10%
Über 10 %
5%
$244,677 Vol.
Über 3 %
98%
Über 3,5 %
67%
Über 4 %
47%
Über 5 %
26%
Über 6 %
14%
Über 8 %
10%
Über 10 %
5%
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on peak 2026 inflation tilts toward moderation, with Polymarket implied probabilities favoring levels below 3% CPI year-over-year, reflecting the Federal Reserve's June Summary of Economic Projections showing median PCE at 2.0% for 2026 amid recent cooling—September CPI at 2.4% headline and 3.2% core. However, upside risks from the November 5 presidential election loom large, as a Trump victory could spur tariffs inflating import costs, echoing 2018-2019 dynamics when duties added 0.2-0.4% to CPI. Fiscal deficits and wage pressures persist, with next catalysts including October CPI on November 13 and December FOMC, where rate path signals will sharpen market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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