Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 17°C at a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 17°C at central stations like Tokyo and Nerima. Persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system, combined with light showers and northerly winds, has suppressed solar heating and capped warming, aligning with short-range JMA model runs forecasting highs of 17–18°C. Historical early-April averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected clearing before sunset around 18:30 JST—remain improbable given current trajectories, with final JMA daily summaries expected post-midnight to confirm resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,452 Vol.
$248,452 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
17°C 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C or higher <1%
$248,452 Vol.
$248,452 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
17°C
$61,342 Vol.
100%
18°C
$28,708 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$40,443 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 17°C at a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 17°C at central stations like Tokyo and Nerima. Persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system, combined with light showers and northerly winds, has suppressed solar heating and capped warming, aligning with short-range JMA model runs forecasting highs of 17–18°C. Historical early-April averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected clearing before sunset around 18:30 JST—remain improbable given current trajectories, with final JMA daily summaries expected post-midnight to confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$248,452Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 17°C at a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 17°C at central stations like Tokyo and Nerima. Persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system, combined with light showers and northerly winds, has suppressed solar heating and capped warming, aligning with short-range JMA model runs forecasting highs of 17–18°C. Historical early-April averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected clearing before sunset around 18:30 JST—remain improbable given current trajectories, with final JMA daily summaries expected post-midnight to confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$248,452Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 17°C at a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 1, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMEDAS observations confirming a midday peak of 17°C at central stations like Tokyo and Nerima. Persistent cloud cover from a weak frontal system, combined with light showers and northerly winds, has suppressed solar heating and capped warming, aligning with short-range JMA model runs forecasting highs of 17–18°C. Historical early-April averages hover around 17.5°C, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected clearing before sunset around 18:30 JST—remain improbable given current trajectories, with final JMA daily summaries expected post-midnight to confirm resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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