Incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) commands trader consensus at 84% for victory in Florida's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+9 partisan voting index per Cook Political Report ratings. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and district-level aggregates, show Bean leading Democratic challenger Jay Shooster by 25+ points, driven by superior fundraising—Bean raised over $1 million versus Shooster's under $100,000—and robust GOP early voting turnout in Duval and Clay counties. No significant scandals, endorsements, or national wave shifts have disrupted this dynamic in the past week, with the November 5 general election approaching amid stable battleground state dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFL-04 Wahlsieger
FL-04 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
84%
Demokratische Partei
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
84%
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) commands trader consensus at 84% for victory in Florida's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+9 partisan voting index per Cook Political Report ratings. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and district-level aggregates, show Bean leading Democratic challenger Jay Shooster by 25+ points, driven by superior fundraising—Bean raised over $1 million versus Shooster's under $100,000—and robust GOP early voting turnout in Duval and Clay counties. No significant scandals, endorsements, or national wave shifts have disrupted this dynamic in the past week, with the November 5 general election approaching amid stable battleground state dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) commands trader consensus at 84% for victory in Florida's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+9 partisan voting index per Cook Political Report ratings. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and district-level aggregates, show Bean leading Democratic challenger Jay Shooster by 25+ points, driven by superior fundraising—Bean raised over $1 million versus Shooster's under $100,000—and robust GOP early voting turnout in Duval and Clay counties. No significant scandals, endorsements, or national wave shifts have disrupted this dynamic in the past week, with the November 5 general election approaching amid stable battleground state dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) commands trader consensus at 84% for victory in Florida's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with an R+9 partisan voting index per Cook Political Report ratings. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and district-level aggregates, show Bean leading Democratic challenger Jay Shooster by 25+ points, driven by superior fundraising—Bean raised over $1 million versus Shooster's under $100,000—and robust GOP early voting turnout in Duval and Clay counties. No significant scandals, endorsements, or national wave shifts have disrupted this dynamic in the past week, with the November 5 general election approaching amid stable battleground state dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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