**Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates fundraising in Florida's 4th Congressional District with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of March 2026, dwarfing Democratic primary rivals like Michael Kirwan's $511,000, reinforcing trader consensus for a GOP hold in this Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report's R+5 PVI.** Bean secured comfortable victories in 2024 (57%-43%) and 2022 (61%-39%) against past challengers, underscoring the northeast Florida district's partisan lean spanning Clay, Nassau, and Duval counties. A crowded Democratic primary—featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—lacks a standout contender, while Bean faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Anthony Valerio ahead of August 18 primaries and the November 3 general election. No district polling exists, but historical margins and fundamentals drive the 80.5% Republican probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFL-04 Wahlsieger
FL-04 Wahlsieger
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
81%
Demokratische Partei
20%
$11,781 Vol.
$11,781 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$6,745 Vol.
81%
Demokratische Partei
$5,036 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates fundraising in Florida's 4th Congressional District with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of March 2026, dwarfing Democratic primary rivals like Michael Kirwan's $511,000, reinforcing trader consensus for a GOP hold in this Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report's R+5 PVI.** Bean secured comfortable victories in 2024 (57%-43%) and 2022 (61%-39%) against past challengers, underscoring the northeast Florida district's partisan lean spanning Clay, Nassau, and Duval counties. A crowded Democratic primary—featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—lacks a standout contender, while Bean faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Anthony Valerio ahead of August 18 primaries and the November 3 general election. No district polling exists, but historical margins and fundamentals drive the 80.5% Republican probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volumen
$11,781Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates fundraising in Florida's 4th Congressional District with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of March 2026, dwarfing Democratic primary rivals like Michael Kirwan's $511,000, reinforcing trader consensus for a GOP hold in this Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report's R+5 PVI.** Bean secured comfortable victories in 2024 (57%-43%) and 2022 (61%-39%) against past challengers, underscoring the northeast Florida district's partisan lean spanning Clay, Nassau, and Duval counties. A crowded Democratic primary—featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—lacks a standout contender, while Bean faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Anthony Valerio ahead of August 18 primaries and the November 3 general election. No district polling exists, but historical margins and fundamentals drive the 80.5% Republican probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,781Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates fundraising in Florida's 4th Congressional District with $1.5 million raised and $1.2 million cash on hand as of March 2026, dwarfing Democratic primary rivals like Michael Kirwan's $511,000, reinforcing trader consensus for a GOP hold in this Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report's R+5 PVI.** Bean secured comfortable victories in 2024 (57%-43%) and 2022 (61%-39%) against past challengers, underscoring the northeast Florida district's partisan lean spanning Clay, Nassau, and Duval counties. A crowded Democratic primary—featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson—lacks a standout contender, while Bean faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Anthony Valerio ahead of August 18 primaries and the November 3 general election. No district polling exists, but historical margins and fundamentals drive the 80.5% Republican probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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