Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im April?
Fed-Entscheidung im April?
Keine Änderung 96.7%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 1.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$37,218,994 Vol.
$37,218,994 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
97%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
2%
Keine Änderung 96.7%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 1.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$37,218,994 Vol.
$37,218,994 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$12,875,977 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$7,660,372 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$7,751,643 Vol.
97%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
$8,931,247 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$37,218,994Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$37,218,994Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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