Polymarket traders reflect overwhelming consensus with a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and labor market softening. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, yet the dot plot still projects just one rate cut later in 2026, tempered by soaring oil prices from global crises adding inflationary uncertainty. Officials like Chair Powell have signaled patience in a "difficult situation," dimming near-term cut hopes. Realistic challenges include sharper disinflation in the March CPI (due April 10) or further job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im April?
Fed-Entscheidung im April?
Keine Änderung 96.6%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 1.9%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$37,429,330 Vol.
$37,429,330 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
97%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
2%
Keine Änderung 96.6%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 1.9%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$37,429,330 Vol.
$37,429,330 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$13,093,142 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$7,663,145 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$7,767,645 Vol.
97%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
$8,938,468 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders reflect overwhelming consensus with a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and labor market softening. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, yet the dot plot still projects just one rate cut later in 2026, tempered by soaring oil prices from global crises adding inflationary uncertainty. Officials like Chair Powell have signaled patience in a "difficult situation," dimming near-term cut hopes. Realistic challenges include sharper disinflation in the March CPI (due April 10) or further job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$37,429,330Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders reflect overwhelming consensus with a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and labor market softening. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, yet the dot plot still projects just one rate cut later in 2026, tempered by soaring oil prices from global crises adding inflationary uncertainty. Officials like Chair Powell have signaled patience in a "difficult situation," dimming near-term cut hopes. Realistic challenges include sharper disinflation in the March CPI (due April 10) or further job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$37,429,330Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders reflect overwhelming consensus with a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the Fed funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and labor market softening. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell 92,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, yet the dot plot still projects just one rate cut later in 2026, tempered by soaring oil prices from global crises adding inflationary uncertainty. Officials like Chair Powell have signaled patience in a "difficult situation," dimming near-term cut hopes. Realistic challenges include sharper disinflation in the March CPI (due April 10) or further job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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