Polymarket traders price a 55% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing $80 by June 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid recent price consolidation around $77.50 after EIA data showed a surprise 4.2 million barrel inventory build last week, tempering bullish momentum from Middle East tensions. Key drivers include OPEC+ adherence to output cuts through quarter-end and China's uneven demand recovery, with global supply gluts pressuring prices despite summer driving season tailwinds. Watch Thursday's EIA report and June 6 FOMC minutes for recession signals that could cap upside; breaching $78.50 resistance is pivotal for bulls targeting end-month resolution. Historical June volatility averages 8%, underscoring resolution risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Rohöl (CL) bis Ende Juni __ erreichen?
Wird Rohöl (CL) bis Ende Juni __ erreichen?
$2,260,601 Vol.
↑ $200
12%
↑ $175
16%
↑ $150
19%
↑ $140
24%
↑ $130
34%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
52%
↑ $105
63%
↑ $100
68%
↓ $85
91%
↓ $80
74%
↓ $70
46%
↓ $60
22%
↓ $55
17%
↓ 52 $
14%
↓ $50
10%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ 40 $
3%
↓ $35
2%
$2,260,601 Vol.
↑ $200
12%
↑ $175
16%
↑ $150
19%
↑ $140
24%
↑ $130
34%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
52%
↑ $105
63%
↑ $100
68%
↓ $85
91%
↓ $80
74%
↓ $70
46%
↓ $60
22%
↓ $55
17%
↓ 52 $
14%
↓ $50
10%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ 40 $
3%
↓ $35
2%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 55% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing $80 by June 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid recent price consolidation around $77.50 after EIA data showed a surprise 4.2 million barrel inventory build last week, tempering bullish momentum from Middle East tensions. Key drivers include OPEC+ adherence to output cuts through quarter-end and China's uneven demand recovery, with global supply gluts pressuring prices despite summer driving season tailwinds. Watch Thursday's EIA report and June 6 FOMC minutes for recession signals that could cap upside; breaching $78.50 resistance is pivotal for bulls targeting end-month resolution. Historical June volatility averages 8%, underscoring resolution risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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