Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 62.5% to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting optimism around State Rep. Amish Shah's commanding lead in the Democratic primary per a February 21-23 HighGround poll of likely voters (33% Shah vs. 11% Marlene Galán-Woods, 49% undecided). This open seat (R+1 Cook PVI Toss-up), vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, features a crowded 10-candidate Democratic field with strong fundraising (e.g., Jonathan Treble at $1.5M cash-on-hand) against eight GOP contenders led by Jay Feely ($686K). Shah's near-miss in 2024 (48.1%) and Democratic statewide margins in the district (e.g., Kelly +6.6%) drive the edge, though July 21 primaries could shift dynamics amid no general election polls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAZ-01 Wahlsieger
AZ-01 Wahlsieger
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
63%
Republikanische Partei
35%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$0 Vol.
63%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 62.5% to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting optimism around State Rep. Amish Shah's commanding lead in the Democratic primary per a February 21-23 HighGround poll of likely voters (33% Shah vs. 11% Marlene Galán-Woods, 49% undecided). This open seat (R+1 Cook PVI Toss-up), vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, features a crowded 10-candidate Democratic field with strong fundraising (e.g., Jonathan Treble at $1.5M cash-on-hand) against eight GOP contenders led by Jay Feely ($686K). Shah's near-miss in 2024 (48.1%) and Democratic statewide margins in the district (e.g., Kelly +6.6%) drive the edge, though July 21 primaries could shift dynamics amid no general election polls.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 62.5% to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting optimism around State Rep. Amish Shah's commanding lead in the Democratic primary per a February 21-23 HighGround poll of likely voters (33% Shah vs. 11% Marlene Galán-Woods, 49% undecided). This open seat (R+1 Cook PVI Toss-up), vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, features a crowded 10-candidate Democratic field with strong fundraising (e.g., Jonathan Treble at $1.5M cash-on-hand) against eight GOP contenders led by Jay Feely ($686K). Shah's near-miss in 2024 (48.1%) and Democratic statewide margins in the district (e.g., Kelly +6.6%) drive the edge, though July 21 primaries could shift dynamics amid no general election polls.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Democratic Party at 62.5% to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District House seat, reflecting optimism around State Rep. Amish Shah's commanding lead in the Democratic primary per a February 21-23 HighGround poll of likely voters (33% Shah vs. 11% Marlene Galán-Woods, 49% undecided). This open seat (R+1 Cook PVI Toss-up), vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, features a crowded 10-candidate Democratic field with strong fundraising (e.g., Jonathan Treble at $1.5M cash-on-hand) against eight GOP contenders led by Jay Feely ($686K). Shah's near-miss in 2024 (48.1%) and Democratic statewide margins in the district (e.g., Kelly +6.6%) drive the edge, though July 21 primaries could shift dynamics amid no general election polls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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