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经济·指标

第一季度标准普尔500指数表现

Market icon
经济·指标

第一季度标准普尔500指数表现

小于0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,289 交易量

小于0% 99.3%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$350,289 交易量

小于0%

$41,634 交易量

99%

0-2%

$14,888 交易量

<1%

2-3%

$19,309 交易量

<1%

3-4%

$43,303 交易量

<1%

4-5%

$66,967 交易量

<1%

5-6%

$46,183 交易量

<1%

6-8%

$59,000 交易量

<1%

8-10%

$34,678 交易量

<1%

10%以上

$24,325 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's 6.97% year-to-date decline to a March 27 close of 6,369 from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, with only three trading days left before quarter-end rendering a recovery improbable. This strong consensus stems from a five-week losing streak fueled by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, which have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears and diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.8%. Heightened volatility, Nasdaq correction, and liquidity strains have amplified risk-off positioning across sectors. Realistic challenges include sudden geopolitical de-escalation or softer March PCE inflation data, though traders price these at negligible odds.

Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's 6.97% year-to-date decline to a March 27 close of 6,369 from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, with only three trading days left before quarter-end rendering a recovery improbable. This strong consensus stems from a five-week losing streak fueled by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, which have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears and diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.8%. Heightened volatility, Nasdaq correction, and liquidity strains have amplified risk-off positioning across sectors. Realistic challenges include sudden geopolitical de-escalation or softer March PCE inflation data, though traders price these at negligible odds.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's 6.97% year-to-date decline to a March 27 close of 6,369 from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, with only three trading days left before quarter-end rendering a recovery improbable. This strong consensus stems from a five-week losing streak fueled by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, which have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears and diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.8%. Heightened volatility, Nasdaq correction, and liquidity strains have amplified risk-off positioning across sectors. Realistic challenges include sudden geopolitical de-escalation or softer March PCE inflation data, though traders price these at negligible odds.

Polymarket traders assign a 99.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's 6.97% year-to-date decline to a March 27 close of 6,369 from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, with only three trading days left before quarter-end rendering a recovery improbable. This strong consensus stems from a five-week losing streak fueled by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, which have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears and diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.8%. Heightened volatility, Nasdaq correction, and liquidity strains have amplified risk-off positioning across sectors. Realistic challenges include sudden geopolitical de-escalation or softer March PCE inflation data, though traders price these at negligible odds.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"第一季度标准普尔500指数表现"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"小于0%"，概率为 99%，其次是"0-2%"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 99¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 99%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"第一季度标准普尔500指数表现"已产生 $350.3K 的总交易量（自Jan 14, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"第一季度标准普尔500指数表现"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"第一季度标准普尔500指数表现"的当前领先者是"小于0%"，概率为 99%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 99%。紧随其后的结果是"0-2%"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"第一季度标准普尔500指数表现"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。