Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 95.9% implied probability for negative S&P 500 returns in Q1 2025 (<0% outcome), reflecting concerns over stretched valuations after 2024's 25%+ rally, sticky inflation data from the December 2024 CPI print (up 2.9% YoY), and anticipated policy risks from the incoming Trump administration's tariff proposals that could stoke inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. Robust November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but highlighted cooling labor momentum, with rising unemployment at 4.2%, fueling recession fears amid high Treasury yields near 4.5% on the 10-year note. Upside challenges could emerge from softer-than-expected January CPI or dovish FOMC signals at the January 28-29 meeting, potentially sparking a relief rally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于小于0% 95.9%
0-2% 1.7%
2-3% 1.3%
4-5% <1%
$298,731 交易量
$298,731 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
96%
0-2%
2%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
1%
5-6%
<1%
6-8%
1%
8-10%
<1%
10%以上
<1%
小于0% 95.9%
0-2% 1.7%
2-3% 1.3%
4-5% <1%
$298,731 交易量
$298,731 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
$37,115 交易量
96%
0-2%
$11,610 交易量
2%
2-3%
$16,114 交易量
1%
3-4%
$39,952 交易量
1%
4-5%
$51,631 交易量
1%
5-6%
$44,416 交易量
<1%
6-8%
$56,466 交易量
1%
8-10%
$19,062 交易量
<1%
10%以上
$22,365 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 95.9% implied probability for negative S&P 500 returns in Q1 2025 (<0% outcome), reflecting concerns over stretched valuations after 2024's 25%+ rally, sticky inflation data from the December 2024 CPI print (up 2.9% YoY), and anticipated policy risks from the incoming Trump administration's tariff proposals that could stoke inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. Robust November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but highlighted cooling labor momentum, with rising unemployment at 4.2%, fueling recession fears amid high Treasury yields near 4.5% on the 10-year note. Upside challenges could emerge from softer-than-expected January CPI or dovish FOMC signals at the January 28-29 meeting, potentially sparking a relief rally.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$298,731结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 95.9% implied probability for negative S&P 500 returns in Q1 2025 (<0% outcome), reflecting concerns over stretched valuations after 2024's 25%+ rally, sticky inflation data from the December 2024 CPI print (up 2.9% YoY), and anticipated policy risks from the incoming Trump administration's tariff proposals that could stoke inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. Robust November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but highlighted cooling labor momentum, with rising unemployment at 4.2%, fueling recession fears amid high Treasury yields near 4.5% on the 10-year note. Upside challenges could emerge from softer-than-expected January CPI or dovish FOMC signals at the January 28-29 meeting, potentially sparking a relief rally.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
交易量
$298,731结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 95.9% implied probability for negative S&P 500 returns in Q1 2025 (<0% outcome), reflecting concerns over stretched valuations after 2024's 25%+ rally, sticky inflation data from the December 2024 CPI print (up 2.9% YoY), and anticipated policy risks from the incoming Trump administration's tariff proposals that could stoke inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. Robust November nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs but highlighted cooling labor momentum, with rising unemployment at 4.2%, fueling recession fears amid high Treasury yields near 4.5% on the 10-year note. Upside challenges could emerge from softer-than-expected January CPI or dovish FOMC signals at the January 28-29 meeting, potentially sparking a relief rally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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