Trader sentiment remains cautious on an AI bubble burst—defined as at least three severe market signals like NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high or the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40%, all within a single 90-day window—given the sector's resilient funding flows. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation on March 31, led by Amazon and NVIDIA investments, signals deep-pocketed commitment despite $11.5 billion quarterly losses, a $207 billion funding gap, and the Sora video model's shutdown over excessive GPU demands. Bill Gurley's mid-March warnings of unsustainable cash burn and brief NVIDIA dips have failed to cluster into qualifying downturns, bolstered by hyperscaler capex exceeding $650 billion annually. Watch OpenAI's IPO timeline, NVIDIA's late-2026 Rubin chip, and Q2 earnings for potential repricing catalysts amid energy shortages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,552,048 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年12月31日
15%
$2,552,048 交易量
2026年12月31日
$1,964,053 交易量
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment remains cautious on an AI bubble burst—defined as at least three severe market signals like NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high or the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40%, all within a single 90-day window—given the sector's resilient funding flows. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation on March 31, led by Amazon and NVIDIA investments, signals deep-pocketed commitment despite $11.5 billion quarterly losses, a $207 billion funding gap, and the Sora video model's shutdown over excessive GPU demands. Bill Gurley's mid-March warnings of unsustainable cash burn and brief NVIDIA dips have failed to cluster into qualifying downturns, bolstered by hyperscaler capex exceeding $650 billion annually. Watch OpenAI's IPO timeline, NVIDIA's late-2026 Rubin chip, and Q2 earnings for potential repricing catalysts amid energy shortages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
交易量
$2,552,048结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment remains cautious on an AI bubble burst—defined as at least three severe market signals like NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high or the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40%, all within a single 90-day window—given the sector's resilient funding flows. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation on March 31, led by Amazon and NVIDIA investments, signals deep-pocketed commitment despite $11.5 billion quarterly losses, a $207 billion funding gap, and the Sora video model's shutdown over excessive GPU demands. Bill Gurley's mid-March warnings of unsustainable cash burn and brief NVIDIA dips have failed to cluster into qualifying downturns, bolstered by hyperscaler capex exceeding $650 billion annually. Watch OpenAI's IPO timeline, NVIDIA's late-2026 Rubin chip, and Q2 earnings for potential repricing catalysts amid energy shortages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,552,048结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment remains cautious on an AI bubble burst—defined as at least three severe market signals like NVIDIA stock dropping 50% from its all-time high or the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40%, all within a single 90-day window—given the sector's resilient funding flows. OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation on March 31, led by Amazon and NVIDIA investments, signals deep-pocketed commitment despite $11.5 billion quarterly losses, a $207 billion funding gap, and the Sora video model's shutdown over excessive GPU demands. Bill Gurley's mid-March warnings of unsustainable cash burn and brief NVIDIA dips have failed to cluster into qualifying downturns, bolstered by hyperscaler capex exceeding $650 billion annually. Watch OpenAI's IPO timeline, NVIDIA's late-2026 Rubin chip, and Q2 earnings for potential repricing catalysts amid energy shortages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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