Trader sentiment on Polymarket for silver's (SI) June settlement price remains fragmented, with the lowest bin under $50 commanding a leading 17.5% implied probability, closely trailed by $60-$70 at 14.2% and $50-$60 at 13.6%, reflecting real-money bets on macroeconomic crosswinds. Driving this caution is the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance amid sticky inflation, bolstering the USD index above 105 and capping precious metals despite silver's 20% YTD rally to near $31.80 spot on surging industrial demand from solar panels and EVs. Bullish tail risks above $70 hinge on rate-cut catalysts from the June 12 FOMC meeting or softer CPI data, while supply deficits from Mexican mines add upside torque—yet recession fears favor the sub-$50 consensus as the base case.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于50美元 18%
60-70美元 14.3%
50至60美元 13.3%
>115美元 12%
$392,901 交易量
$392,901 交易量
低于50美元
18%
50至60美元
13%
60-70美元
14%
70-80美元
11%
80-90美元
11%
$90-$100
9%
100-115美元
9%
>115美元
12%
低于50美元 18%
60-70美元 14.3%
50至60美元 13.3%
>115美元 12%
$392,901 交易量
$392,901 交易量
低于50美元
18%
50至60美元
13%
60-70美元
14%
70-80美元
11%
80-90美元
11%
$90-$100
9%
100-115美元
9%
>115美元
12%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
市场开放时间: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for silver's (SI) June settlement price remains fragmented, with the lowest bin under $50 commanding a leading 17.5% implied probability, closely trailed by $60-$70 at 14.2% and $50-$60 at 13.6%, reflecting real-money bets on macroeconomic crosswinds. Driving this caution is the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance amid sticky inflation, bolstering the USD index above 105 and capping precious metals despite silver's 20% YTD rally to near $31.80 spot on surging industrial demand from solar panels and EVs. Bullish tail risks above $70 hinge on rate-cut catalysts from the June 12 FOMC meeting or softer CPI data, while supply deficits from Mexican mines add upside torque—yet recession fears favor the sub-$50 consensus as the base case.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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