Trader consensus favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 at 56.5%, reflecting ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury that began February 28 with the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei and have since targeted over 11,000 sites, including nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production, and command infrastructure. Recent March 31 White House updates confirm operations persist ahead of schedule despite severe degradation of Iranian air, naval, and missile capabilities, as Tehran maintains retaliatory missile barrages and contests the Strait of Hormuz, delaying de-escalation signals. Late April resolutions like April 30 (7.6%) and April 29 (5.4%) gain traction amid hints of nearing completion, though no ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has emerged to shift odds lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Military action through April 30 56%
April 29 5.4%
April 28 5.4%
April 3 5.3%
$77,773 交易量
$77,773 交易量
2026-04-30
Before April
<1%
April 1
1%
April 2
5%
April 3
5%
April 4
2%
April 5
2%
April 6
2%
April 7
2%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
2%
April 11
2%
April 12
2%
April 13
3%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
4%
April 17
2%
April 18
3%
April 19
1%
April 20
2%
April 21
1%
April 22
1%
April 23
2%
April 24
2%
April 25
2%
April 26
2%
April 27
5%
April 28
5%
April 29
5%
April 30
8%
Military action through April 30
56%
Military action through April 30 56%
April 29 5.4%
April 28 5.4%
April 3 5.3%
$77,773 交易量
$77,773 交易量
2026-04-30
Before April
$4,638 交易量
<1%
April 1
$10,764 交易量
1%
April 2
$5,352 交易量
5%
April 3
$3,967 交易量
5%
April 4
$1,726 交易量
2%
April 5
$1,807 交易量
2%
April 6
$1,516 交易量
2%
April 7
$1,562 交易量
2%
April 8
$2,081 交易量
1%
April 9
$1,990 交易量
1%
April 10
$1,485 交易量
2%
April 11
$1,665 交易量
2%
April 12
$1,913 交易量
2%
April 13
$2,202 交易量
3%
April 14
$2,122 交易量
2%
April 15
$1,565 交易量
2%
April 16
$1,878 交易量
4%
April 17
$1,485 交易量
2%
April 18
$1,442 交易量
3%
April 19
$1,342 交易量
1%
April 20
$1,356 交易量
2%
April 21
$1,342 交易量
1%
April 22
$1,342 交易量
1%
April 23
$1,341 交易量
2%
April 24
$1,342 交易量
2%
April 25
$1,342 交易量
2%
April 26
$1,342 交易量
2%
April 27
$1,468 交易量
5%
April 28
$1,468 交易量
5%
April 29
$1,533 交易量
5%
April 30
$2,188 交易量
8%
Military action through April 30
$9,205 交易量
56%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 at 56.5%, reflecting ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury that began February 28 with the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei and have since targeted over 11,000 sites, including nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production, and command infrastructure. Recent March 31 White House updates confirm operations persist ahead of schedule despite severe degradation of Iranian air, naval, and missile capabilities, as Tehran maintains retaliatory missile barrages and contests the Strait of Hormuz, delaying de-escalation signals. Late April resolutions like April 30 (7.6%) and April 29 (5.4%) gain traction amid hints of nearing completion, though no ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has emerged to shift odds lower.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$77,773结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 at 56.5%, reflecting ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury that began February 28 with the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei and have since targeted over 11,000 sites, including nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production, and command infrastructure. Recent March 31 White House updates confirm operations persist ahead of schedule despite severe degradation of Iranian air, naval, and missile capabilities, as Tehran maintains retaliatory missile barrages and contests the Strait of Hormuz, delaying de-escalation signals. Late April resolutions like April 30 (7.6%) and April 29 (5.4%) gain traction amid hints of nearing completion, though no ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has emerged to shift odds lower.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$77,773结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 at 56.5%, reflecting ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury that began February 28 with the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei and have since targeted over 11,000 sites, including nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production, and command infrastructure. Recent March 31 White House updates confirm operations persist ahead of schedule despite severe degradation of Iranian air, naval, and missile capabilities, as Tehran maintains retaliatory missile barrages and contests the Strait of Hormuz, delaying de-escalation signals. Late April resolutions like April 30 (7.6%) and April 29 (5.4%) gain traction amid hints of nearing completion, though no ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough has emerged to shift odds lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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